College Football Playoff Round 1: Second betting market update

Welcome to the second iteration of PFF's College Football Playoff market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week.

We’ll also provide an update for each bowl game, where market dynamics differ significantly and are largely influenced by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes.

The first round of the playoff is unique because it presents a coveted home-field advantage for the higher seeds.

INDIANA (No. 8) VS NOTRE DAME (No. 5)

	Opener	Last Week	Current Line
Spread	ND -7.5	ND -7.5	ND -7
Total	53.5	50.5	52

Spread: There’s been a significant move down to 7 on the spread here from last week, where we initially saw support for Notre Dame taking this line to 8. One piece of context we get this close to gameday is the ability to tie line moves to betting limits at certain sportsbooks. As a market stays open, lines tend towards efficiency, giving the sportsbook confidence to raise their betting limits. Interestingly, as limits have increased for this matchup, we’ve seen Hoosiers' money come in. This is a signal that larger, more respected money liked Indiana at +7.5. You can still find some of those 7.5s in the market at -115.

Total: Similar story here. As limits have increased, we’ve seen support for the over, pushing this total up 1.5 points to 52. Temperatures are set to be below freezing, and there is potential for snow.

National Championship Odds: Indiana +4000 | Notre Dame +700

SMU (No. 10) VS. PENN STATE (No. 4)

	Opener	Last Week	Current Line
Spread	PSU -7.5	PSU – 8.5	PSU -8.5
Total	53.5	54	53.5

Spread: This line hasn’t moved at all from last week. Since the last update, we have seen Penn State’s backup QB Beau Pribula enter the transfer portal and leave the team. While I wouldn’t typically point out a backup QB regarding market efficiency, Pribula did play some meaningful snaps down the stretch, showing specific plays and packages designed specifically for his mobility. This is one less thing SMU will need to plan for, and it is worth keeping in mind should Drew Allar go down with an injury.

Total: Since last week's update, we have seen a consensus move down a half point to 53.5. There are still plenty of 54s out there. Temperatures are set to be sub-freezing for this noon kickoff, but no other weather factors should be in play.

National Championship Odds: SMU +4000 | Penn State +550

CLEMSON (No. 16) VS. TEXAS (No. 3)

	Opener	Last Week	Current Line
Spread	TEX -11.5	TEX -11	TEX -12
Total	54.5	51.5	51.5

Spread: Texas has been pushed to a 12-point favorite from last week, moving past the original opening number. We have seen some resistance at that number, preventing this from getting any higher. There is optimism that star tackle Kelvin Banks will play.

Total: No movement on the total. This is the only Round 1 game with a temperature above freezing. There should be no issues in the forecast.

National Championship Odds: Clemson +6000 | Texas +360

TENNESSEE (No. 7) VS. OHIO STATE (No. 6)

	Opener	Last Week	Current Line
Spread	OSU -7.5	OSU -7.5	OSU -7.5
Total	47.5	47	46.5

Spread: This number has bounced back and forth throughout the last week between 7 and 7.5. Both numbers are currently available to bet.

Total: Since last week, the total has dropped to as low as 45.5 but bounced back to 46.5. Temperatures will be in the mid-20s in Columbus. There could be some wind to keep an eye on. At this point, it looks like it will end up manageable.

National Championship Odds: Tennessee +2500 | Ohio State +500