• Reconsider the “first defender selected” market: Many expect Alabama edge defender Dallas Turner to be the first defender off the board, but keep an eye on Texas interior defender Byron Murphy II.
• Take Drake Maye at plus money to be the No. 2 overall pick: Arbitraging the No. 2 overall pick market as odds shift over the next three weeks is a smart way to play it.
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Now three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, sportsbooks have been slow to release betting markets — an unfortunate trend in recent years — but there are still a few angles we see value in.
Texas DI Byron Murphy II to be the first defender selected (+1600 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alabama edge defender Dallas Turner is currently the heavy favorite, with many connecting him to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 overall. The top cornerbacks in this year’s class also have shorter odds, with bettors probably thinking Atlanta could pair a young talent opposite 2020 first-rounder A.J. Terrell, who could be in line for a market-topping extension this offseason.
However, we view the talent at both positions as having a more gradual decline through the first few rounds, and we also think teams could have different stylistic preferences based on the builds and skill sets of each player. On the other hand, the drop-off from Byron Murphy II and Illinois interior defender Johnny Newton to the next crop of interior defenders is far steeper in our eyes, especially if a team is looking for a quality pass rusher on the inside.
The Falcons have two stud interior defenders in franchise legend Grady Jarrett and 2023 free-agent addition David Onyemata, but Jarrett tore his ACL in Week 8 of 2023 and both players are in their 30s. New head coach Raheem Morris was also just the defensive coordinator from 2021-23 for a guy by the name of Aaron Donald.
This isn’t just a bet about the Atlanta Falcons, either. Could the Los Angeles Chargers shock everyone and add a force on the interior with aging edge defenders Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa both taking pay cuts? Would the Chicago Bears pivot to adding the three-technique head coach Matt Eberflus has raved about as the key position to his defense if the board doesn’t fall their way with the wide receivers and/or tackles? The New York Jets have Quinnen Williams on the interior and question marks beyond that; do they add a running mate to solidify their defense as perhaps the best in the league for years to come?
We have lost some value here, as this price was in the 20-to-25/1 range a few weeks ago, but we still like the value for a flier bet.
North Carolina QB Drake Maye to be selected No. 2 overall (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’ve shared our thoughts on the annual quarterback smokescreen-palooza for 2024, and arbitraging the No. 2 overall pick market as odds shift over the next three weeks is a smart way to play it. As of now, Maye is still plus odds at some books. When that swings, you could have money down on both Maye and Jayden Daniels at plus odds, locking in a small profit.
Indianapolis Colts first position selected: Defensive Line (+700 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Colts were reportedly in hot pursuit of edge defender Danielle Hunter this offseason, and this wasn’t just checking in on a top free agent. According to Stephen Holder of ESPN, the team offered Hunter more money than the two-year, $49 million contract he signed with the AFC South rival Houston Texans.
While Indianapolis did work to retain its own free agents on the defensive line in Grover Stewart, Tyquan Lewis and Taven Bryan, perhaps the team will still entertain a swing on the unit with the No. 15 overall pick.
Pro Bowl interior defender DeForest Buckner is entering the final year of his contract and recently turned 30 years old, and while an extension probably makes sense for both parties, if that doesn’t happen it could provide a bit of a signal. There’s a reason the Colts have long odds here: They have a ton of depth both at edge defender and on the interior, but a true impact player to hypothetically replace Buckner or to become the No. 1 edge makes sense, considering the Danielle Hunter interest.
The team does need to add more talent in the secondary or another pass catcher for quarterback Anthony Richardson, but the belief that both spots are a dire need that must be addressed in the first round is a bit overstated. General manager Chris Ballard has made it quite clear he builds his team from the inside out on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars first position selected: Offensive Line (+650 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
After losing wide receiver Calvin Ridley to the AFC South rival Tennessee Titans in free agency and releasing cornerback Darious Williams, it’s hard to find a mock draft that doesn’t have the Jaguars selecting one of those two positions at No. 17 overall.
Left tackle Cam Robinson was suspended for the first month of the 2023 season, then missed a pivotal chunk of games with injury over Weeks 12-16 when the Jaguars' season effectively collapsed. He would provide more than $17 million in cap relief with a cut/trade for the final year of his contract. Even without a cut, he may not be retained beyond 2024. At right guard, Brandon Scherff agreed to a $6.5 million pay cut in turn for some guaranteed money in the last year of his contract in 2024.
The Jaguars do have 2021 second-round pick Walker Little, who has played good football at tackle and guard over his first three seasons, but he is also set to enter a contract year. Jacksonville was masterful last year in trading down multiple times before selecting Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison, who already looks to be a quality starter at right tackle for years to come. Perhaps they continue to fortify the protection for Trevor Lawrence and get out ahead of a few departures coming soon.
We know the wide receiver draft class is deep, and Jacksonville does still have three veteran contract wideouts in Christian Kirk, Gabriel Davis and Zay Jones, plus an exciting second-year player in Parker Washington. We certainly expect them to add at the position over the first two days, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they do so with their first selection. At cornerback, it would also make plenty of sense, but they may have enough belief in the duo of Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby to stay patient there, as well, though we again expect a selection over the first two days.
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