• Bet Bills WR Stefon Diggs anytime TD at Lions: Against Lions' poor corners, and after barely being involved in Week 11, the juice is worth the squeeze here on Diggs.
• Detroit's Amani Oruwariye (29 coverage grade, 4 TDs allowed) and Jerry Jacobs (120 total snaps at wide corner) must cover Diggs with CB1 Jeffrey Okudah out.
• Bet Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb anytime TD vs Giants: He has three touchdowns in his past three games, and though Lamb's usage hasn't necessarily been elite, in primetime on Thanksgiving at home vs a division rival is Lamb's perfect stage.
Last updated: Nov. 23, 9:25 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Week 12 of the NFL season is unique because it aligns with Thanksgiving, and we’re thankful to receive three games to bet on throughout the day.
These games always include the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.
This year, we have the following matchups:
Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5)
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots
With so much action, we have bettors' go-to guide for anytime TDs on Thanksgiving Day.
Let’s dive in.
Bet Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs anytime TD (-140)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -160
• Making Up For Lost Time: During the Bills' Week 11 win over the Cleveland Browns, Diggs was visibly frustrated on the sideline, not receiving a target until much deeper into the game than he’s used to. He finished the day with only four catches. Against the Lions, he’ll battle a cornerback duo of Jerry Jacobs (just 120+ snaps at wide corner) and Amani Oruwariye (29.0 coverage grade), who allows a 75% reception rate and four touchdowns on the year. Look for the Bills to get the ball to Diggs in this one early and often.
Bet Buffalo Bills RB James Cook anytime TD (+300)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +200
• New Lead Back in Buffalo?: Cook has been mostly a nonfactor since earning 11 carries in Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans. However, against the Browns last week, he had 11 carries again, turning them into 86 rushing yards. The Lions have the 24th-ranked run defense (50.5 grade), allowing over 153 yards per game and 17 total rushing touchdowns this season. We know what Devin Singletary is, and the Bills should lead this one easily. Get ready for a Cook breakout.
Bet Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb anytime TD (+107)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +100
• Top-Notch Matchup: According to our Fantasy Football WR/CB matchup tool, Lamb against the Giants defenders ranks atop the list. Lamb plays both out wide (302 snaps) and in the slot (269 snaps). In both spots, he faces great matchups, with Giants cornerback Darnay Holmes (54.4 coverage grade) leading the way. In this game, Lamb will find himself across from Holmes, Fabian Moreau (63.5 coverage grade), and Nick McCloud (58 snaps at wide corner; 65.3 coverage grade). These corners have allowed a combined four touchdowns, while the safeties, Julian Love and Dane Belton, have allowed two scores and 43 total receptions. Before Week 11, Lamb had three scores in his previous two games. His usage hasn’t necessarily been elite this year. Still, this home matchup on Thanksgiving Day against a division rival is a perfect stage for Lamb to shine.
Bet: New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley anytime TD (-115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -130
Cowboys Run Defense Is Beatable: Barkley was terrible in Week 11, touching the ball 17 times for 35 yards. Against the Cowboys, the Giants are sizable underdogs and will need to control the game’s pace. Fortunately, Barkley faces a Cowboys run defense that allows over 136 rushing yards and has a run defense grade of 47.9. In Week 10, Barkley had 35 carries, so he’s more than capable of handling a larger workload. Barkley has scored in all but four games this season and, as the focal point of the Giants offense, should get enough touches against a beatable Cowboys run defense to find the endzone in what will ultimately be a losing effort. Micah Parson, Demarcus Lawrence, and Dante Fowler Jr. are all beat up and officially questionable heading into this game, which should also assist Barkley in hitting pay dirt.
Bet Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+125)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +110
• Jefferson At A Plus Price? Sign Us Up: After getting shellacked at home by the Dallas Cowboys, the Vikings are home favorites against the Patriots, who have great corners in Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones. However, Jefferson will see a steady diet of Jalen Mills, whose coverage grade is only 41.7 this season. He’s allowed a 57.5% reception rate and two touchdowns, but his poor grade will reflect when matched up with Jefferson. Furthermore, Jefferson (87.6 receiving grade) is good enough to beat Jack (90.1 coverage grade) and Jonathan Jones (80.4 coverage grade). Like Diggs, Jefferson should be heavily involved, after a three-catch, 33-yard day in Week 11.
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