Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp moving closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach.
If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at the most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.
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We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.
Mispriced scenarios should be mispriced even worse further downstream as errors compound. Or, if the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.
Our late-week teaser broke even last week, as the Atlanta Falcons heavy parlay just missed out on cashing. Both legs of our teaser actually won outright, so neither turned out to be the best option to utilize as a teaser leg. Despite my 7-11 written plays record this season, the plus-price targets have paid off from a units won perspective, as we are up +3.85 units to start the season.
Using these approaches, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 9.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The tragic situation surrounding Henry Ruggs’ release further emphasizes an obvious point: Don’t drink and drive — there is simply no reason to ever do it. Las Vegas must now try to move forward without its downfield threat while also facing increased scrutiny from everyone.
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