Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tools to identify the best betting opportunities in the Week 10 Monday Night Football contest between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Monday Night Football.
WR COOPER KUPP: Over 7.5 receptions (-125)
If sportsbooks insist on setting Kupp’s receptions prop at 7.5, then bettors should continue to put their money on him confidently. After all, Kupp is the front-runner for the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year Award.
The Rams wideout has earned an 89.4 PFF grade this season and leads all wide receivers in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. He has come down with fewer than seven receptions in just one game this season and has only one game with fewer than double-digit targets — a nine-target Week 8 matchup with the Texans.
According to PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, Kupp has the fourth-best matchup of any wide receiver in the NFL this week with an excellent 86.5 matchup advantage over 49ers cornerbacks Josh Norman, Emmanuel Moseley and K'Waun Williams.
The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. shouldn’t affect Kupp’s production, either. Not only do the Rams play more 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one running back, one tight end) than any team in the NFL, but Beckham Jr. will likely serve as the deep threat/contested-catch weapon for the Rams, which won’t interfere with Kupp’s volume in the slot.
PFF’s player props tool gives Kupp a 73.1% chance to catch at least eight passes, which is incredible value for bettors, given a 55.6% break-even point at -125 odds.
Matthew Stafford: Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
The overs on QB rushing yardage props continue to offer value, especially when the player isn’t typically known for rushing success. And Matthew Stafford is the perfect example of such a player.
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