• Georgia @ Tennessee, under 58.5: The Vols defense ranks 23rd in the FBS in EPA allowed per play and 28th in yards per play. The limiting of explosive production lends itself to betting unders on totals closing in on 60 points despite the pace of one of the teams.
• A slow, low-scoring game? The slower-paced team is the big favorite and will likely dominate possession and control the general pace of the game.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Things change quickly in the world of college football.
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy was the Heisman favorite two weeks ago, but he was held to just seven completions for 60 scoreless yards against Penn State last week and hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 8, so he is now out to 60-1, with Oregon's Bo Nix taking over as the front-runner.
Ohio State‘s Marvin Harrison Jr. has taken one of the bigger jumps up the Heisman board in recent weeks and is now 5/1 to take the award away from a quarterback for the second time in four years.
As for the playoffs, the Oregon Ducks have separated themselves from the cluster of teams fighting for the fourth spot after a 412-yard, four-touchdown performance from Nix in a win against USC last weekend.
The market is significantly more efficient at this stage of the season — and especially later in the week — so opportunities for bets are limited. And if you are still betting at this stage of the season, you are very likely grinding edges that are smaller than you think they are, so be cautious.
We are at the time of year when the weather becomes more impactful — make sure you are checking those weather reports.
Georgia @ Tennessee: Under 58.5 (-110 generally available)
Georgia’s defense has not been as dominant as in previous years, but the team has played some explosive offenses over the last few weeks and can be marked up based on how they defended in those games.
The Florida Gators rank 37th in the FBS in expected points added (EPA) per play, and Georgia limited them to just one touchdown until the last minute of the game. They did exactly the same a week later against a Missouri offense that ranks 19th in that same metric.
Ole Miss got going early against Georgia last week, scoring two first-half touchdowns, but once the defense found its feet, the team gave up just three points in the second half.
Tennessee plays at a higher pace than most teams. And while that generally correlates highly with high scoring, the offense is not terribly efficient. The Volunteers rank 48th in the FBS in EPA per play and 41st in success rate, and they are not as explosive as the likes of Florida or Missouri.
However, the Vols do field a stingy defense, as they rank 23rd in the FBS in EPA allowed per play and 28th in yards per play. The limiting of explosive production lends itself to betting unders on totals closing in on 60 points despite the pace of one of the teams.
The slower-paced team is the big favorite and will likely dominate possession and control the general pace of the game.
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