• Big day for Deebo Samuel: Look for Samuel to be a focal point of the San Francisco 49ers offense through the air and on the ground.
• Who will run the most plays?: The Kansas City Chiefs are far more likely to run a higher volume of plays in this matchup regardless of game script. The price on most plays run is way too close to even odds for both teams.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Super Bowl Sunday is right around the corner and the PFF Forecast has already provided enough betting angles to make nearly every snap meaningful, but we have two more props we like late in the week.
Deebo Samuel 100+ combined rushing/receiving yards (+190, DraftKings)
Samuel averaged nine carries per game during the 2021 playoff run, which dipped down to 4.33 in 2022, and Samuel accumulated three totes in this year’s conference championship game. This was with Samuel coming off the injury report late in the week and looking like his usual explosive self, forcing two missed tackles on his rushes. With an extra week of rest, Samuel appears to be a full go with zero limitations. The Chiefs have been susceptible to rushes outside the tackles all season long, ranking dead last in EPA per rush allowed and 30th in success rate, so we’re looking for an end around that goes for a big explosive and perhaps better volume than the game against Detroit with closer to five carries.
Kansas City was eighth in blitz rate this season and could perhaps dial that up even more with the loss of edge defender Charles Omenihu. Brock Purdy led the NFL this season in yards per attempt, total passing yards and touchdown passes against the blitz, and Deebo Samuel was 12th in receiving yards against the blitz across the NFL, ninth in yards after the catch and second in touchdowns scored.
Kansas City Chiefs to run the most plays (-102, FanDuel)
The San Francisco 49ers snapped the ball on 73.1% of plays this season with less than 10 seconds remaining on the game clock, the highest percentage in the NFL by a comfortable margin, always looking to bleed the clock and limit possessions in the game. The Chiefs, conversely, snapped the ball with under ten seconds on the game clock on just 46.4% of plays, 26th in the NFL.
The likely explanation for near-even odds here is tied to the potential game script, though every book across the country has the 49ers favored as of this writing, granted as a very slight favorite. Nonetheless, the 49ers don’t exactly speed up their process when trailing, averaging 8.6 seconds remaining on the game clock when trailing, the fourth-lowest average time remaining in the NFL this season on such plays. With a massive halftime deficit against Detroit in the conference championship game, this average game clock time remaining when trailing still sat at 8.8 seconds.
San Francisco also led the NFL in explosive pass percentage at 20.1% and ranked fourth in explosive run percentage at 15.4%, with Kansas City ranking tied for 18th and eighth in those categories, respectively. The 49ers are more likely to break off chunk gains and limit the number of plays per drive, whereas Patrick Mahomes’ 6.9-yard average depth of target this season ranked 42nd out of 49 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.
Look for the Chiefs to methodically work their way down the field in almost all game scripts, with the Chiefs ranking seventh in terms of average time remaining on the game clock when snapping the ball while trailing and playing with a lead, and if we do get Kansas City playing from behind this bet should cruise to the finish line.
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