PFF breaks down Week 15's Monday Night Football doubleheader by reviewing the teams' records, key trends and game overviews before delivering the best bet backed by PFF's trusted betting model.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings (-7) [Total: 44]
Game Overview
The race for the NFC North title is heating up, with the Vikings in close pursuit of the Lions, who currently lead both the division and the NFC overall.
Minnesota has been on a tear, winning six straight games and remaining undefeated since the start of November. However, in betting markets, their performance has been less impressive, with a 3-2-1 record against the spread (ATS) during that stretch. This is largely due to oddsmakers adjusting expectations, forcing the Vikings to cover larger spreads. As a result, they hold a modest 5-4-1 ATS record as favorites this season.
Conversely, the Bears continue to slide, now aiming to find any momentum to build on for next season. Chicago has lost seven straight games and remains winless since the Week 7 bye. Though they showed improvement in November with a 2-0-1 record against the spread (ATS) to close out the month, they have stumbled in December, most recently suffering a blowout loss to San Francisco.
This matchup will be pivotal for the Vikings. A loss to the struggling Bears could derail their hopes of achieving the near-impossible feat of capturing the NFC crown. So, Minnesota can’t afford to overlook Chicago.
QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: Over 21.5 Completions (+102)
The Vikings’ success in 2024 is largely due to the resurgence of Sam Darnold leading the offense. His recent stretch of stellar performances has propelled him into the top five in PFF passing grade for the season, with a league-leading 92.3 passing grade since Week 11.
Darnold thrives in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, displaying top-tier accuracy while keeping defenses honest with well-timed deep shots. He owns a 75.1% adjusted completion percentage this season, excelling on short passes. On throws of 9 yards or shorter, Darnold leads the NFL with a 90.8% adjusted completion percentage, demonstrating precise control and efficiency.
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders [Total: 44.5]
Game Overview
The second matchup may lack star power, but it holds real significance for the Falcons’ postseason hopes.
Atlanta has gone from leading the NFC South to fighting for survival after dropping four straight games. Despite being underdogs in three of those losses, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each matchup since Week 9, leaving them with a disappointing 5-8 record against the spread (ATS). The last time Atlanta was favored on the road was in Week 10 against New Orleans, where they were 3.5-point favorites but fell 20-17.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have shown little fight this season and are currently on a nine-game losing streak, with their last victory coming in September. Even as a sizable underdog for most weeks, Vegas has gone just 1-4 ATS since the start of November despite being given five or more points in each matchup.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 17.5 Carries (-115)
With Kirk Cousins‘ effectiveness under center increasingly in question, the running game has been carrying the load for the Falcons' offense. Much of that credit goes to the consistent dominance of Bijan Robinson, who holds a top-three PFF rushing grade (90.9) among running backs this season.
Robinson has seen the kind of volume you’d expect from a top-tier back, ranking seventh in the NFL with 215 carries. Over his last five games, he has surpassed 17.5 carries in four of them. This production comes despite Tyler Allgeier sharing the workload, logging 17 carries over the last two games compared to Robinson’s 48 carries in that span.
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