Monday Night Football: Broncos-Bills Week 10 betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• Russell Wilson over 29.5 pass attempts: There is plenty of reason to think that a road game as a seven-point underdog against a team that plays with pace is more conducive to passing volume than games against a slow-paced offense such as the Chiefs or against an exceptional coverage unit like the Jets.

• Samaje Perine over 12.5 receiving yards: Perine has taken over the receiving role in recent weeks, and with the pressure the Broncos will no doubt face due to Wilson holding on to the ball for long periods, the checkdown option is going to be a useful outlet.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

GAME OVERVIEW

This Buffalo Bills team has a wide range of outcomes. They have a 28-point win over the Miami Dolphins and a four-point loss to the Patriots, and since traveling to London to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they have looked like a team that could win or lose any game. That shows in the scorelines, as none of those five games were decided by more than six points, with the Bills losing three and winning two.

Since that London game in Week 5, the Bills still rank second in the league in expected points added (EPA) and have a success rate two percentage points higher than the next-best offense. On defense, they rank 31st in EPA allowed per play and 27th in success rate.

The run defense has been the Bills’ strength on defense since Tre’Davious White went down in Week 4, with the team allowing a fourth-ranked 33% success rate on run plays. The coverage unit has allowed the second-highest success rate and the sixth-most EPA.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, starting outside corner Christian Benford has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, while starting safety Micah Hyde is out with a neck injury. An already struggling secondary will be significantly worse heading into this game.

Denver is not passing the ball often, as Russell Wilson has thrown the ball more than 30 times just once since Week 5. However, he has taken a ridiculous 14 sacks on just 98 dropbacks, averaging 3.19 seconds on plays outside of designed screens and scramble drills.

That said, they have played the Jets and Chiefs twice in that period, and those teams are second and third, respectively, in EPA allowed per pass play. Wilson attempted 29 passes against the Packers in their other game.

Russell Wilson Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-106 Ceasars), Over 19.5 Completions (-101 Caesars) & Samaje Perine Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)

The market has taken full notice of the downtick in the Broncos' passing offense over the last month, but as previously mentioned, the strength of the opposing coverage units in those games would have been a significant factor.

There is plenty of reason to think that a road game as a seven-point underdog against a team that plays with pace is more conducive to passing volume than games against a slow-paced offense such as the Chiefs or against an exceptional coverage unit like the Jets.

Furthermore, the Bills' already leaky secondary is very unhealthy right now. Being down Tre’Davious White was already a problem, but now they lose another starting corner and one of the league’s best safeties in Micah Hyde.

Given the issues on the back end, you have to think a team coming off a bye with a high-end coach in Sean Payton will have taken notice of the depleted Bills secondary and worked toward exploiting the biggest defensive weakness of the opponent.

Samaje Perine has taken over the receiving role in recent weeks, and with the pressure the Broncos will no doubt face due to Wilson holding on to the ball for long periods, the checkdown option is going to be a useful outlet.

The Bills have allowed the third-highest schedule-adjusted yards per route run to opposing running backs this season, and with expected increased volume, this line is very low in a game in which they are likely to be trailing.