• TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs — over 5.5 receptions and over 60.5 receiving yards: Travis Kelce has had a slow start by his standards, earning just a 61.8 PFF receiving grade so far this season. However, he’s making strides toward a return to form as the season progresses. Since Week 4, Kelce has posted an improved 74.1 receiving grade, highlighted by five receptions of 15 or more yards and a 26.1% target rate.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs (-9) [Total: 45.5]
Game Overview
Week 9 wraps up with an interconference showdown between the undefeated Chiefs and the injury-riddled Buccaneers.
This matchup would have had a very different tone just a few weeks ago. However, significant injuries to star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have left the Bucs’ offense limited. Through Week 6, Tampa Bay’s passing attack ranked in the top eight in EPA per dropback, but it has since dropped to 15th. Over the past two games, the Bucs have also led the league in dropbacks (103), as they've struggled to maintain efficiency without their top targets.
On the defensive side, Tampa Bay’s coverage unit has faltered over the past month. In October, the Bucs’ coverage metrics ranked in the bottom three across several categories, including team coverage grade (42.0), passer rating allowed (132.0), yards per coverage target (9.7), and open target percentage (67.4%).
These struggles have contributed to a 1-3 record against the spread and four consecutive overs on the game total.
On the other sideline, the Chiefs return to Kansas City after a two-game road trip following their Week 6 bye. In Week 8, the Chiefs narrowly missed covering the spread for the first time since Week 2, beating Las Vegas by 7 points but falling short of the -8.5 spread due to a late score by the Raiders.
A more balanced approach from Patrick Mahomes, who’s coming off his second-highest-graded game of the season, paired with a stout defense has propelled the Chiefs to the top of the NFL standings.
Though injuries in the secondary have left the defense a bit vulnerable in coverage, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has the front seven firing on all cylinders. Kansas City ranks in the top five in both run-defense grade (76.0) and pass-rush grade (78.8), creating a formidable challenge.
This will pose a serious problem for QB Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Without a reliable running game, Tampa risks becoming one-dimensional, and it’s questionable whether their limited passing attack has the firepower to keep pace with Kansas City.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs — over 5.5 receptions and over 60.5 receiving yards (+105)
Kelce has had a slow start by his standards, earning just a 61.8 PFF receiving grade so far this season. However, he’s making strides toward a return to form as the season progresses. Since Week 4, Kelce has posted an improved 74.1 receiving grade, highlighted by five receptions of 15 or more yards and a 26.1% target rate.
Injuries have caused some shifts in the Chiefs' offensive usage through the first half of the season, but the team has recently settled in, leaning more heavily on Kelce. The All-Pro tight end has seen nine or more targets in three of his last four games, surpassing both betting lines in each of those matchups, including a 10-catch, 90-yard performance last week.
Tampa Bay’s struggles in coverage are well-documented, particularly when it comes to defending tight ends. In their four October games, the Buccaneers have allowed 24 receptions, 366 receiving yards, and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends—an average of 2.53 yards per route run.
With free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. dealing with a lingering injury and currently listed as questionable, Tampa Bay’s defense will be short on viable options to match up against Kelce.
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