• WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals — over 30.5 receiving and rush yards: Wilson generates separation at a high rate, as he boasts a top-25 separation rate (64.52%) entering this matchup. He also excels in contested situations, with his 71.4% contested catch rate good for second in the NFL among players with five or more contested targets from Week 1 to Week 7.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) vs Arizona Cardinals [Total: 44]
Game Overview
The second of two games on Monday night features a pair of teams that have struggled with consistency this season. After both franchises started the year with a perfect 2-0 record against the spread (ATS), they have covered only once in the subsequent weeks.
Los Angeles maintains a respectable 3-1-1 ATS record, coming off a win as road favorites in a divisional matchup last week. Due to some inefficiencies on offense, the team has had to rely on its strong defense, which ranks in the top two across several key defensive metrics, including EPA allowed per play, successful play rate allowed (29.2%) and touchdown drive percentage allowed (12.7%).
However, the Chargers' secondary has struggled in coverage in recent weeks. Since Week 4, this unit has allowed a 71.7% open target rate — the worst in the NFL during that span — resulting in a team coverage grade of just 50.7.
While Arizona holds a respectable 3-3 ATS record, their performance has been uneven, with a 1-3 record over their last four games. The range of outcomes has been staggering, including a 28-point home loss to Washington and a narrow 1-point road victory as 7-point underdogs against the 49ers. So, predicting which version of the team will show up each week is challenging.
The issues extend beyond the offense; the defense has also struggled, ranking in the bottom five in both EPA allowed per play and pass-rush win rate (31.0%) over the past three games.
WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals: Over 30.5 Receiving and Rushing yards (-117) — 2.5% PFF Greenline Edge
Given the Chargers' recent problems in coverage, it’s logical for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' passing game to take center stage this week. While Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are the primary attractions, Wilson has quietly made a solid start to the year, surpassing this yardage line in four of his six matchups.
Wilson generates separation at a high rate, as he boasts a top-25 separation rate (64.52%) entering this matchup. He also excels in contested situations, with his 71.4% contested catch rate good for second in the NFL among players with five or more contested targets from Week 1 to Week 7.
This skill set will be particularly beneficial against a Chargers coverage unit that is hobbled at cornerback, with Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and Ja’Sir Taylor (fibula) both listed as questionable. Fulton and Taylor are currently the only Chargers corners to have earned a coverage grade of 70.0 or higher.
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