• The Arizona Cardinals have 75-to-1 odds to lead the NFL in scoring: It's a longshot, but context is important. Arizona will presumably have a full year of Kyler Murray with a revamped receiving corps.
• Arizona's expected poor defense plays into this bet: Despite the long odds, the Cardinals are capable of putting up significant points this season as they try to keep up with their opponents.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Arizona Cardinals to Lead NFL in Points Scored (75:1 on FanDuel)
Let us, as usual, begin by trying to understand how the market is arriving at its pricing, so as to determine if there is potential value.
The Cardinals finished the 2023 NFL season with the eighth-fewest points scored (330). But, of course, this misses crucial context. The team played half the season without star quarterback Kyler Murray, instead starting a combination of journeyman Josh Dobbs and overmatched rookie Clayton Tune.
The Cardinals' ability to move the ball — quantified by the metric “Earned Drive Points” — ranked eighth best over the second half of the 2023 season to go along with the ninth-best expected points added per play and the 11th-best yards per play. Despite those impressive numbers, the passing game lagged a bit behind, ranking 26th in EPA per play and 29th in explosive pass rate.
The team added offensive reinforcements to help the passing game, especially the deep game, where Murray and the Cardinals will need to excel to hit their right tail ceiling. Marvin Harrison Jr. has dominated in the deep areas of the field, leading college football in deep receiving grade while ranking in the top five in virtually every deep metric.
This plays well with Kyler Murray’s skill set, seeing as Murray has been the third-most accurate deep passer in the NFL since entering the league. But Murray's EPA has been only average, likely due to his wide receiver play for most of his career. His best deep-ball years and the Cardinals' best offensive years came with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins at the peak of his game.
Further, Harrison's deep presence should allow more room for emerging third-year tight end Trey McBride to operate. While tight ends usually have slow development curves, McBride flashed last year with the third-highest yards per route run figure at the position, despite it being his sophomore year and his getting a full-time role only once Zach Ertz was traded mid-season. With a full year as a starter and likely more space to operate with, there is little reason to think McBride can’t deliver another dominant season and perhaps even improve on his numbers from last year.
A year further removed from ACL surgery for Kyler Murray, with some young emerging weapons and what figures to be a poor defense on the other side, the Cardinals have a frisky right tail on offense that, even despite long odds, can result in a top-scoring offense.
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