• Bet the under 52: This is a brutal matchup for the Lions offense. Their likely pivot to a more run-heavy game plan should lead to a relatively lower-scoring game.
• Why tilt to the run? Detroit has attacked the middle of the field at the highest rate in the NFL and has found great success doing so. However, no defense in the league takes away the heart of the field better than San Francisco's. The way to attack the 49ers is by targeting the outside areas of the field, which is something that Goff has done at the lowest rate in the NFL. With their biggest area of strength essentially neutralized, the Lions likely won't be able to find much success through the air in this game.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Conference championship weekend has arrived, and two teams will soon punch their tickets to Super Bowl 58.
In this article, we will break down the NFC Championship game and identify a valuable betting angle. Let’s get into it.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-7, 52)
The Lions have had a relatively easy road to the NFC championship, handling the Rams and Buccaneers over the last two weekends. Importantly, both games were played in the dome of Ford Field, where Jared Goff and the Lions offense have found far more success than when playing outdoors. In fact, Detroit has played outside just once in their last 12 games.
In addition to the game being played outside, the 49ers defense presents a difficult schematic matchup for the Lions offense. All season long, Detroit has attacked the middle of the field at the highest rate in the NFL and has found great success doing so.
Well, no defense in the league takes away the heart of the field better than San Francisco's, thanks to the elite linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
The way to attack the 49ers is by targeting the outside areas of the field, which is something that Goff has done at the lowest rate in the NFL. With their biggest area of strength essentially neutralized, I don’t think the Lions will be able to find much success through the air in this game.
When game planning for this matchup, Lions OC Ben Johnson will surely be aware of the 49ers' ability to take away the middle of the field. So, what is his most likely point of emphasis to try and move the ball against this defense?
Given that San Francisco has been very vulnerable against the run, it’s likely that Detroit will pivot to a more run-heavy game plan. The Lions are among the few teams that average a positive EPA per rush and should run the ball at a high rate on Sunday.
If they run the ball as often as I expect, the number of points expected in this game should decrease. The clock will constantly be ticking, and the amount of explosive plays we can expect the Lions to generate will also plummet. Although they have had relative success running the ball, this offense needs to move the ball through the air to perform at their season-long level, which they likely won’t be able to do.
On the other side of the ball, there is no arguing that the 49ers are going to have success against a weak Lions defense. However, they just may have fewer chances to do so, with the Lions chewing up the clock on the ground.
Brock Purdy has also looked vulnerable multiple times over the second half of the season, especially when pressured. Detroit is around league average when it comes to generating pressure, but if pass-rushers such as Aidan Hutchinson can affect Purdy at a high rate, we have seen how steep the drop in his production can be.
Best Bet: Under 52 (to 51)
This is a brutal matchup for the Lions offense. Their likely pivot to a more run-heavy game plan should lead to a relatively lower-scoring game with fewer possessions and opportunities to light up the scoreboard.
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