NFL Divisional Round Betting Matchup Angles: Target the overs in what should be another Bills-Chiefs classic

Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.

While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.

Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.

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Matchup Angle: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions rack up the points in a high-scoring affair

• Both the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to defend explosive plays this season, but they have each been terrific at generating explosive plays on offense.

• Much of this is a function of the two offensive lines holding up enough to provide clean pockets. Both Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have been among the league’s best when kept clean from pressure this season, with both ranking in the top five at their position in expected points added (EPA) per play from a clean pocket.

• There should be plenty of clean pockets on offer in this game, too, as these two defenses rank in the middle of the pack in terms of their ability to generate pressure. Both offenses do a good job of preventing quick pressure, as well.

• Considering these angles, there is good reason to think this game could feature plenty of fireworks through the air with quick scores and big passing attacks.

Bet to place: I’ll be targeting the over in this game, as well as the passing-yardage overs. I'll also build some same-game parlays that further flesh out this base story.

Matchup Angle: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen mitigate the strength of their opposing defenses because of their scrambling ability

• Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are frequent (and terrific) scramblers. They have scrambled from the pocket well above league average and generated positive outcomes on those scramble plays this season.

• These two defenses are in the top quartile in terms of EPA allowed per play, success rate and various other efficiency metrics, magnifying Mahomes' and Allens' ability to scramble and make something out of nothing.

• As we studied this summer, the ability to scramble — and scramble well — mitigates the matchup advantage a defense can present. If a quarterback can move around and extend plays, it limits the effectiveness of a pass rush and buys extra time for receivers to get open, which then limits the effectiveness of the secondary.

• Markets are pricing in this game with a heavy weight toward how well the defenses have performed this year, but both of these signal-callers play a style of football agnostic to that effect.

Bets to place: I’ll be buying offense in this spot, looking at game total overs and overs on props — passing and rushing — for Mahomes and Allen.