I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate each week.
The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar betting value from this article as you work through your decision-making process.
Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from spreads, totals and player props perspectives.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (CHIEFS -8.5, 41.5 TOTAL)
- These teams played in Kansas City several weeks ago, a 27-19 victory for the Chiefs.
- The biggest question going into that contest was how Patrick Mahomes, on a bad ankle, would be able to navigate Houston’s pass rush behind a below-average tackle unit.
- Mahomes answered that question by getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds on average. He dissected the Texans with quick underneath passes, going 21-of-24 for 171 yards on throws 5 yards or less downfield.
- It was a high-volume passing game for Mahomes, with the Chiefs passing on 68% of plays despite playing with a lead throughout. He ended with 41 pass attempts (fourth most in a game this season).
- Houston's pass rush wrecked the Chargers’ offensive game plan in the wild-card round, so I expect the Chiefs to deploy a similar approach as in their previous meeting.
- The biggest question going into that contest was how Patrick Mahomes, on a bad ankle, would be able to navigate Houston’s pass rush behind a below-average tackle unit.
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