• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions — over 81.5 receiving yards: Cornerback Keisean Nixon had his worst game of the season against Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 4, producing a season-low 46.8 PFF coverage grade. And he should struggle again against a healthy opponent who really does not have too much competition for targets.
• QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys — under 35.5 pass attempts (-101 Caesars): Washington has failed to generate pressure since trading away both of their star pass-rushers, which will allow Prescott more time to find big plays behind an offensive line that is far better than anything the Commanders defense will have seen recently. Simply put, Dak won't need the volume to get the job done on Thanksgiving.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Jared Goff stumbled his way through last week in a comeback win against the Chicago Bears, throwing three interceptions. However, the Lions eventually found a way to get the job done, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter.
Amon-Ra St. Brown recorded 77 yards in Week 11, his third-lowest total of the season, with his lowest output coming against the Packers back in Week 4. That is likely contributing to this number, but we must remember that the stud receiver played hurt in that game, as he was on and off the field with an abdominal injury that eventually kept him out of Week 5.
St. Brown's following four starts all produced 100-yard games, and I would be inclined to think that his total this week will be something similar, given that he'll be going against Keisean Nixon in the slot.
Nixon had his worst game of the season against Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 4, producing a season-low 46.8 PFF coverage grade. And he should struggle again against a healthy opponent who really does not have too much competition for targets.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Under 35.5 Pass Attempts (-101 Caesars)
TE Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders: Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)
Dallas has made an effort to pass the ball a lot more recently, and while that is not conducive to betting passing-attempt unders on the surface, those games all had specific circumstances that allowed them to increase their passing volume.
The Giants and Panthers could do anything to move the ball down the field against the Cowboys in recent games, giving up a huge amount of possession to Dallas. That is unlikely to be the case against the Commanders.
While the Carolina defense has struggled for the most part this year, they do a very good job at limiting big plays, while the Commanders have given up the third-highest explosive play rate since Week 6.
Washington has also failed to generate pressure since trading away both of their star pass-rushers, which will allow Prescott more time to find those big plays behind an offensive line that is far better than anything the Commanders defense will have seen recently. Simply put, Dak won't need the volume to get the job done on Thanksgiving.
Playing from behind and giving up big plays is just what Washington does now, and that means more passing for quarterback Sam Howell. And while he has his issues, he does have big-play upside.
The Cowboys' outside corners have been excellent in Trevon Diggs’ absence, which has meant teams have had to find other options to move the ball.
Dallas has given up the seventh-most personnel-adjusted yards per route run to opposing tight ends this season despite playing a very weak schedule of passing offenses.
In Dallas' games against real threats up the seam, George Kittle caught three passes for 67 yards and three touchdowns, Dallas Goedert produced 50 yards for the Eagles, L.A.'s Tyler Higbee recorded 45 yards and New England's Hunter Henry caught four passes for 51 yards.
Logan Thomas is heavily involved in the high-volume Washington passing game, and in a game where the Commanders are likely to play from behind, look for Thomas to produce one of his biggest games of the season.
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