2024 NFL Thanksgiving Day same-game parlays

Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from a single game into one wager, increasing the potential payout.

Our SGP picks are built around specific game narratives that the data suggests could unfold, with insight into how key players and matchups may impact the outcome.

Here are our top SGP picks for this week based on these data-driven narratives.

Tim Patrick Burns the Bears Defense For a Deep touchdown

Since their bye week, the Bears’ defense has struggled significantly with explosive plays, allowing a 10% explosive pass percentage — the fourth-worst mark in the NFL during that span.

Enter Tim Patrick, now the unquestioned WR3 for the Lions, with Kalif Raymond sidelined due to injury. Patrick has excelled in this deep-threat role within Detroit’s offense.

Further bolstering the case for Patrick is that he’ll likely run the majority of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson, who has been one of the most vulnerable cornerbacks in football this season.

While the market seems to price Patrick’s success as more likely in a game where the Lions control and cover the spread, I’d argue it’s more plausible in a tighter contest. In a narrower game script, the Lions are more likely to stay aggressive through the air rather than pivot to a ground-heavy approach. This scenario creates an inverse correlation with Patrick’s anytime touchdown odds, making him an even more compelling play.

SGP Build: 90-1 on Draft Kings

• WR Tim Patrick, Detroit Lions: 70+ receiving yards & anytime TD
• QB Jared Goff: 275+ passing yards
• Chicago Bears +10.5

Keenan Allen has a big day working Lions man coverage and slot cornerbacks 

The Lions lead the NFL in man coverage usage, employing it on nearly 45% of their defensive snaps.

Keenan Allen has been the Bears’ go-to target against man coverage, commanding a dominant 27% target share, with no other wide receiver on the team surpassing 20%. This is likely due to Allen being the only Bears receiver with an above-average separation grade against man coverage.