• WR Christian Watson to dominate: The Packers WR1 is back from an injury with his best matchup of the season.
• RB Tony Pollard under 16.5 rush attempts: This rushing attempt line is high because there are many ways this bet can win.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Last week's bets were hit-and-miss. The over on Ezekiel Elliott‘s rushing attempts fell short because the Patriots, down three wide receivers, still passed the ball 44 in a game that was close throughout, with neither running back getting to double-digit carries. Austin Ekeler‘s receiving overs then fell a few yards short, simply because he dropped three of his five targets.
On the positive side, Aaron Jones was as involved as expected, racking up 24 touches in a 17-point win over the Rams.
On to Week 10.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Christian Watson: Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel), 75+ Receiving Yards (+500 Caesars) & Most Receiving Yards of the Week (80/1 Caesars)
Christian Watson is one of the league's premier big-play receivers. And although Aaron Rodgers is no longer his quarterback, he is still the ultimate deep threat, especially against man coverage (and more specifically against Cover 1).
Since the start of 2022, Watson has run 76 routes against Cover 1 — 18% of all his routes — and averaged 3.45 yards per route run. He has moved the chains 10 times on 11 catches, including four touchdowns.
His opportunities have been limited at best in 2023 due to injury and because the teams he has faced have not played much Cover 1. However, the Steelers have played Cover 1 on almost 30% of their snaps this season and have allowed ridiculous stat lines to outside wide receivers all year: Brandon Aiyuk caught eight passes for 129 yards, Amari Cooper seven for 90 yards, Davante Adams 13 for 172 yards, Nico Collins seven for 168 yards and Calvin Ridley six for 83 yards.
Christian Watson is back from an injury with by far his best matchup of the season.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
RB Tony Pollard: Under 16.5 rush attempts (-108 FanDuel) & WR Jalen Tolbert: Anytime touchdown (+700 FanDuel)
This rushing attempt line is high because there are a lot of ways for this bet to win.
The Cowboys are 17-point favorites at the time of writing, and that number has been increasing all week, with little reason to think this will move back due to the QB situation in New York.
This game could get out of hand early, given the high turnover potential for the Giants. The Giants could also revert to the game plan they used against the Jets when they didn't throw a single pass in the entire second half.
It is important to note that Deuce Vaughn has been a healthy scratch since the Week 5 loss to the 49ers, but KaVontae Turpin took a huge hit in the Eagles game in Week 9 and missed practice all week with the shoulder injury.
Deuce Vaughn is the backup punt and kick returner and is likely to be active if Turpin is out, which gives the Cowboys a third running back option behind Pollard and Rico Dowdle, whom they will utilize in a blowout, as they have done this season.
Jalen Tolbert should get increased playing time in a wide-margin victory and has been playing more in closer games recently, playing at least 40% of snaps in three of the last four games.
This is a big number for a touchdown, given Tolbert's expected playing time with his team favored by a big margin.
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