• Worlds apart in 2023: Compared to teams over the last 14 years, the Indianapolis Colts are nearly exactly league average on offense and defense, while the New England Patriots are average on defense but have fielded a 10th-percentile offense. That is a fairly massive difference, especially considering the market is pricing these teams just a point apart on this neutral field.
• Ample opportunity: Given New England’s pass-funnel nature, both volume and efficiency should be on the Colts' side, making it an attractive spot to back them.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
Best Bets
• Indianapolis Colts -6.5 (+190)
• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 250+ passing yards & Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (+750)
• Let's start with the fundamentals of how each of these teams has moved and prevented teams from moving the ball. Compared to teams over the last 14 years, the Indianapolis Colts are nearly exactly league average on offense and defense, while the New England Patriots are average on defense but have fielded a 10th-percentile offense.
• That is a fairly massive difference, especially considering the market is pricing these teams just a point apart on this neutral field.
• Looking week-to-week, the Colts' offense has been consistently average. The Patriots' offense has been well below average.
• The chart above shows how well the Colts have moved the ball relative to their opponents. On the whole, they have been far more consistent, hovering around average in all but two games this season despite facing some tough defensive opponents.
• The Patriots offense has consistently performed well below average outside of their games against Miami and Buffalo. And that was before the team lost Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker, two starting wide receivers.
Matchup Angles
• Over the last month or so, the Colts defense has allowed separation at one of the highest rates in the league. But over the same timeframe, the Pats rank 31st league-wide in yards of separation, and quarterback Mac Jones has thrown into tight windows at a top-three rate, suggesting that New England will have issues generating the requisite separation to succeed against this secondary.
• Furthermore, the Colts' defense has struggled to limit big plays, allowing explosive plays of 15 or more yards at the sixth-worst rate in the league.
• Again, Jones and the Patriots have generated the fewest expected points added (EPA) on deep pass attempts, diminishing that theoretical advantage.
• The Patriots rank third in rushing success rate allowed and seventh in EPA allowed per rush, but they come in at 28th in EPA allowed per pass and 25th in passing success rate allowed.
• As a result, teams are passing against the Patriots at the eighth-highest rate in the league.
• Even if the Patriots can force the Colts to abandon the run game, Minshew has been terrific even when the defense knows a pass is coming and ranks near the top of the league in EPA per play on passing downs.
• Couple this angle with the previous points about New England’s pass-funnel nature, and both volume and efficiency should be on the Colts' side, making it an attractive spot to back them.
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