• RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers — longest rush under 12.5 yards (-120): Ekeler has been one of the most inefficient runners in football this season. Following a 100-plus-yard Week 1 performance, he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry, dead last among all qualifying running backs since Week 2.
• WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons — over 46.5 receiving yards (-115): The Cardinals' pass defense has been an absolute mess this season, as it ranks 29th in EPA allowed per pass and 31st in passing success rate allowed. They don’t really have the secondary pieces to make the scheme come to life and have especially struggled to slow down wide receivers.
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RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: Longest rush under 12.5 yards (-120)
• The Lions rush defense is pretty close to league average, as it ranks 15th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and 20th in rushing success rate allowed.
• However, Detroit has been successful when it comes to stopping explosive plays on the ground. This season, the Lions allowed only seven rushes of 10-plus yards, the fewest in the league by five rushes.
• Austin Ekeler has been one of the most inefficient runners in football this season. Following a 100-plus-yard Week 1 performance, he’s averaging 2.6 yards per carry, dead last among all qualifying running backs since Week 2.
• In his four games post-injury, he has one rush of 10 or more yards — and that’s on 57 carries. With the Chargers likely to be in a shootout and throwing the ball often, I like the under in this spot.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-110)
• The Bucs defense is a major pass funnel this season, ranking bottom-eight in most metrics for pass-defense efficiency while also ranking top-five in every run-defense metric.
• In addition, teams are throwing against the Bucs defense about 5% more than expected, fourth among all defenses this year.
• Westbrook-Ikhine does not usually get much volume, but he has caught 72% of his targets this season. And with Treylon Burks out, Westbrook-Ikhine will step into the WR2 role for this game.
• There is a bit of projection about the volume he’ll get in this game. However, Houston threw for over 450 yards — with two receivers going for 100-plus yards — against this defense last week. I like Westbrook-Ikhine to have a good game in Week 10.
WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
• The Cardinals' pass defense has been an absolute mess this season, as it ranks 29th in EPA allowed per pass and 31st in passing success rate allowed. They don’t really have the secondary pieces to make the scheme come to life and have especially struggled to slow down wide receivers.
• This defense has allowed 1,566 receiving yards to wide receivers this year, the sixth-most in the league.
• Additionally, they’ve gotten toasted by opposing WR1s like Amari Cooper (139 yards), Cooper Kupp (148 yards), Ja’Marr Chase (192 yards) and Brandon Aiyuk (148 yards), who have all had big games on this defense.
• Drake London’s QB situation isn’t great, but he’s still seen at least seven targets in his last five games and has recorded 50-plus yards in four of those games. In what should be a close game, he should garner enough targets to go over this total.