• QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers — over 226.5 passing yards: The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed the seventh-most expected points added (EPA) per pass play and the fifth-highest passing success rate. Every quarterback who has played the Chargers has gone over 227 passing yards, including Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson.
• WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders — over 4.5 receptions: The New York Giants defense is predicated on playing a ton of man coverage and leaving their cornerbacks on islands. However, it hasn’t really worked that well due to the lack of talent in the secondary.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Over 226.5 passing yards(-115)
• The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense is one of the worst in the entire NFL. The team just allowed the Detroit Lions to throw for over 300 yards and put up 41 offensive points.
• They have allowed the seventh-most expected points added (EPA) per pass play and the fifth-highest passing success rate. Every quarterback who has played the Chargers has gone over 227 passing yards, including Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson.
• Jordan Love has played better football over the last three weeks, ranking ninth at the position in PFF passing grade over that period, while his seven big-time throws put him fifth.
• He’s exceeded this passing yardage total in six of his nine games this year. I like him to continue that trend this week against a very leaky pass defense that gives up a ton of explosive plays.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: Over 4.5 receptions (-114)
• The New York Giants defense is predicated on playing a ton of man coverage and leaving their cornerbacks on islands. However, it hasn’t really worked that well due to the lack of talent in the secondary.
• The Giants have allowed 140 catches to wide receivers this year, the third-most in the NFL, and WR1s have feasted on them recently. CeeDee Lamb caught 11 passes on this defense, Garrett Wilson caught seven, McLaurin caught six and Stefon Diggs hauled in 10.
• If we look at the Commanders' target distribution vs. man coverage, we see that McLaurin has seen 24 targets vs man, seven more than Jahan Dotson, the second-most-targeted player on the team. He’s turned only 12 of those 24 targets into catches, but the volume is important here, and we can expect him to get some positive regression this game against a pretty bad pass defense.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Jahmyr Gibbs received a pretty high snap share last week, even with David Montgomery back in the lineup, and it could be a sign that the Lions' coaching staff is trusting him with a bigger role.
• The important one here is the 21 routes run vs. Montgomery’s 11. Gibbs saw five targets, while Montgomery got 0. The rookie turned those five targets into 35 receiving yards, and he has gone over this total in each of the last three weeks.
• The Bears' defense has been the league's worst at covering running backs. They’ve allowed 616 receiving yards to the position in 10 games, an average of 61.6 yards per game. We’ve seen actual pass-catching backs like Alvin Kamara (44 yards), Austin Ekeler (96 yards) and Antonio Gibson (64 yards) produce well through the air against this defense, and that should continue this week with Gibbs.
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