NFL Week 12 Betting: Midweek market update

• Helping you understand market movement: This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

• A bet for Browns-Steelers on Thursday Night Football: Sell the under and buy the over at 36.5. While adverse weather typically supports the under, this adjustment seems like an overreaction without fully considering the situation.

• Get ahead of the competition: Sign up for PFF+ to access PFF's betting dashboards, fantasy football start-sit optimizer, weekly fantasy rankings and more!

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Welcome to PFF's weekly midweek market update.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

Injury, weather conditions and public pick releases can all affect line movement. Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve with this article.

CLICK HERE TO JUMP TO A GAME:

PIT@CLE | TEN@HOU | NE@MIA | DET@IND | MIN@CHI | KC@CAR
TB@NYG | DAL@WAS | DEN@LV | ARI@SEA | SF@GB
PHI@LAR | BAL@LAC

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: This game opened at 3.5, briefly moved to 4.5, but has since returned to the opening number.

Total: After initial downward movement to 38.5, a pick release drove the total even lower to 35.5. However, resistance at this level suggests the market is hesitant to drop further. Wind and rain are expected on Thursday night, which is influencing this line.

Buy/Sell: I'm selling the under and buying the over at 36.5. While adverse weather typically supports the under, this adjustment seems like an overreaction without fully considering the situation. The opener already factored in the forecast to some extent, and reports on the wind's severity are mixed. If the forecast eases, this total could climb by a point or two before kickoff.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Spread: The line opened at 7 and has since moved to 7.5 or 8 across the market. A strong Monday Night Football performance influenced the move off the key number of 7. I expect it to settle at its current range ahead of kickoff.

Total: After some early testing at 42 and 42.5, the total has returned to the opening number of 41. So far, no books have dropped below this key figure, indicating balanced action at this level.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Tick down from 7.5 to 7 after opening, knocking the Dolphins just out of advantage teaser range. There are 7s across the board.

Total: Over money has shown up, taking this through the key number of 45 and out to 46. There are still some 45.5s out there.

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Opened on the other side of 7 from the lookahead number, with little movement aside from that. Some books spent some time at 8, but we’re back at 7.5s across the board.

Total: The over has seen steady action push this out to as high as 51 before settling back in at 50.5.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Spread: The spread has fluctuated between 3 and 3.5 multiple times, but the 3.5 is becoming more prevalent. A few books still list the Vikings at -3, but you'll have to lay extra juice to grab that number.

Total: After initially returning to the lookahead number of 40, the total has dipped below the opener of 39.5. Most books are showing 39 at this point.

Buy/Sell: I'm buying into the under movement and taking under 39.5. Several market-leading books are already at this number or lower, and I expect it to hold below 39.5 as we approach kickoff.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: The market is mostly painted 11 across the board, but a handful of 10.5s are lingering out there. I don’t see a world where this gets to 10, and it likely closes right around where it’s at now.

Total: A pick release pushed this total out from 41.5 to 43. There was some resistance met at 43.

Situational Factors: The Panthers are coming off of their bye week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Spread: News of Daniel Jones being benched for Tommy DeVito has pushed this out to 5.5, where it sits across the board. One book took it out to 6 before seeing some buy-back on the Giants.

Total: We’re starting to see some reaction to the QB change. This total was initially at 43 before the news. It’s dropped a point, and there are a few 41.5s out there, signaling it may not be done yet. There is potential wind to deal with here.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy the under and lock in the under 41.5 at -105, which is a better price than the under 42 at a standard -110. This price sensitivity increases over time, leading to a larger bankroll. When the wind gets factored in, this one should continue to drop.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Spread: After a rough showing for Dallas on Monday Night Football, this reopened at 11. Since then, Cowboys support has pushed it back to 10. The market is pretty split between 10 and 10.5.

Total: The market reacted to the performance it saw from Cooper Rush and the Cowboys offense on Monday, reopening 1.5 points lower.

Situational Factors: The advantage goes to the Commanders with extra rest, having played on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on short rest.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: It initially moved from 4 out to 5, and we see a few 5.5s on the surface. I expect it to keep moving, but it will likely settle around there.

Total: Since opening at 39.5, the market has been split between 41 and 41.5. I don’t see it getting much higher than it is now.

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy onto the Broncos at -5. This one should close at -6 or better.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: This is a true toss-up here, and you won’t see this move much past a point in either direction.

Total: The market feels like it has this one figured out, as there’s been next to no movement.

Situational Factors: The Cardinals are coming off of their bye week.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: One-way action has this spread approaching a field goal, although I really don’t see it ever getting there. If it does, there would be an immediate buy-back on SF +3.

Total: This reached 48—which wasn’t quite the lookahead number—before coming back down to 47.5. There are primarily 47.5s across the board.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: This moved to 3 on Monday morning, and a few books have fallen back to 2.5. You’ll need to lay additional juice on either team at the more advantageous number, as this one should close at a theoretical 2.75.

Total: A pick release pushed this total as high as 51 before settling back at 49.5. From there, an opposing pick release pushed it back to nearly the opening number. Given the opposing forces, I expect this to close between 48.5 and 49.

Situational Factors: The Rams have a slight advantage as the Eagles fly to the West Coast.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: The Chargers host another AFC North team in prime time this week, but this time, they find themselves as a heavier underdog as this has gotten to Baltimore by a field goal. I fully expect this to close at 3.

Total: Nothing but over money, taking this out to as high as 51 before coming back down to 50. We do see a handful of 49.5s out there now. We cashed the over last week in nearly the same situation. At the opening number, I liked this over as well, but with an already 3-point adjustment baked in, I can’t commit.

Situational Factors: Slight advantage Chargers, with the Ravens flying to the opposite coast.