• Bet on Josh Downs to go OVER 49.5 receiving yards against the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has given up the most yards per route run to opposing slot receivers this season, and Downs is poised to return to his normal role this week after dealing with an injury.
• Bet on Kareem Hunt to go OVER 39.5 rushing yards: The Browns will run the ball a good amount with a struggling quarterback, and the volume of carries alone should push Hunt past this line.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Bonus football on Thanksgiving means a smaller Sunday slate in Week 12, but the contests are mostly expected to be close. Only the Chiefs (against the Raiders) are more than a touchdown favorite, and the second-widest spread is just four points. The majority of the totals are north of 40 points, so maybe offenses will shine this week, too.
Our bets over the course of last week did well. The two Sunday bets went 1-1, with Amari Cooper going over 3.5 receptions and Trevor Lawrence’s longest pass falling under the 35.5 yards required (two catches went for 34 yards). We went 3-0 on the Vikings and Broncos game later that night as Russell Wilson hit his passing attempt overs and Jerry Jeudy benefited from a good matchup to go over both his main line of 41.5 yards and the alternate line of 49.5 yards.
Patrick Mahomes went under his passing total on Monday night before our 2-1 day on Thanksgiving — just Commanders tight end Logan Thomas failed to haul in enough catches to take him over his total.
These bets went 7-2 over the past week for +4.56 units, betting to win one unit with each bet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts — Josh Downs Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-111 Caesars)
Josh Downs had been struggling with a knee injury in the two weeks prior to the Colts' bye in Week 11, and he managed to play only 20% and 25% of the team’s offensive snaps in those weeks. But he has since practiced fully and has no injury report designation ahead of his best matchup all season.
Tampa Bay has given up the most yards per route run to opposing slot receivers this season with cornerback Christian Izien, including Khalil Shakir going for 92 yards and Noah Brown posting 153 yards and a touchdown. Things calmed down a bit for the Bucs last week in that regard, but the 49ers had a big lead, passed the ball only 25 times and did not use a slot receiver very often.
Josh Downs cemented himself as the Colts' No. 2 receiver prior to his injury and should return to that role this week.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos — Kareem Hunt Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115 Caesars)
Kareem Hunt has been slowly chipping away at Jerome Ford’s playing time. Last week, they split carries down the middle in Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s return to the starting lineup.
This Week 12 matchup is significantly better for the Browns' running back duo than the past two weeks. While Denver has improved markedly as the season has gone on and their coverage unit is doing much better, they are giving up the most yards per carry and the most yards per carry over expectation since the start of Week 6. Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler combined for 5.5 yards per carry on almost 30 attempts a week after James Cook and Latavius Murray put up a ridiculous 8.4 yards per carry on 21 touches for the Bills.
The Browns have not been as efficient as either the Vikings or Bills recently, but they will run the ball a good amount with a struggling quarterback. The volume of carries alone should push Hunt past this line.
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