NFL Week 13: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights

• WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals — Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114 on FanDuel): The Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. may shadow Ja'Marr Chase, leaving Higgins in a favorable matchup with Donte Jackson.

• WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings — Anytime TD (+105 on DraftKings): Jefferson leads the Vikings in red-zone target rate but hasn’t scored since Week 7 against Detroit. He has a great opportunity to end the drought against the Cardinals.

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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes

Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football.

We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.

WEEK	WINS	LOSSES	WIN %
1	8	19	30%
2	25	19	57%
3	19	28	40%
4	20	13	61%
5	16	16	50%
6	28	27	51%
7	31	20	61%
8	32	21	60%
9	44	30	59%
10	30	35	46%
11	29	32	48%
12	27	39	41%
TOTAL	309	299	51%

Three straight losing weeks (after two consecutive weeks at around 60%) brings the season total to 51%, but that hit rate sits slightly higher at 52.4% when looking at insights since Week 4, when we’ve had three weeks of 2024 data to work with.

As has been the case the past few weeks, all Key Insights can be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players with an associated insight.

Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 309-299 (51%)
Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 257-233 (52%)

QB C.J. STROUD, HOUSTON TEXANS: OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+108 on FanDuel)

KEY INSIGHT: “C.J. Stroud can excel against Jacksonville's man-heavy defense.”

The Texans' offense has looked dysfunctional for weeks, but this will be Nico Collins’ third game back from a hamstring injury that cost him the better part of six games. And if there was ever a get-right spot for Houston's passing offense, this is it.