Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: C.J. Stroud’s scrambling ability gives him an advantage vs. the New York Jets defense
• As we studied this summer, quarterbacks who rarely scramble and fail to create positive results on scrambles will be far more sensitive to matchups against good defenses than those who scramble and scramble well.
• As C.J. Stroud has gotten more comfortable in the NFL, he has begun to scramble far more often and has been terrific when doing so, ranking fourth at his position in expected points added (EPA) on those plays.
• The Texans signal-caller has also been terrific at extending plays under pressure without taking many sacks. His ability to extend the play has allowed receivers to break open, diminishing the need for his receivers to win immediately and allowing enough time for coverage to break down.
• Meanwhile, sportsbooks are pricing in a huge discount on Stroud and the Texans — at the time of this writing, the weather does not appear to be too much of a factor — likely because of the Jets' terrific defense.
• But Stroud’s traits should enable him to evade pressure and buy enough time for his receivers to break open. Matchups matter less to Stroud than they do to other passers, but the prices do not match this reality.
Bets to make: C.J. Stroud alt passing lines, the Texans spread and same-game parlays combining the passing lines and spreads.
Matchup Angle: Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love picks apart New York Giants’ Man Coverage scheme
• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field — the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
• The Giants have played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, but their corners have really struggled to prevent separation. Starting slot cornerback Cor'Dale Flott has prevented separation at the lowest rate at his position.
• All four of the Packers' young receivers are at least above average in separation percentage, granting them a massive situational advantage over the Giants in Week 14.
• Quarterback Jordan Love has been terrific against man coverage, too. Over the last five weeks, he has generated 0.28 EPA per play against man coverage. Aggregated over the full season, that mark would rank second in the NFL.
Bets to make: Packers team total overs, Jordan Love props and some same-game parlay builds that tell the story of the Packers dominating through the air.
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