NFL Week 14 Betting Notebook

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Estimated Reading Time: 28 minutes

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I hit on the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week. So this week, I’m taking a stab at putting together notes for every game in the slate.

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully you’re able to get similar value from this article as you work through your decision-making process. Each game will include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I like” summary at the end, which quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from both a spreads, totals and player props perspective.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (TB -6.5, 46.5 TOTAL)

• The Buccaneers have been one of the bigger pass funnels in the NFL this year (a consistent theme for Todd Bowles’ defenses in Tampa Bay)

- 67% pass rate faced (4th highest)
- 3,325 passing yards allowed (3rd most)

• The return of Jamel Dean does shore up one of the weaker spots in the secondary, but we still saw Bryce Young throw for nearly 300 yards on this defense last week

• I’m going back to the well with Raiders’ pass game alts here. One of the biggest draws for doing that with Las Vegas is how concentrated its pass-game production has been since trading away Davante Adams

• Most targets on Raiders offense since Week 7

- - Brock Bowers: 62
  - Jakobi Meyers: 45
  - Tre Tucker: 29

• I don’t have a strong lean on Bowers vs. Meyers. I’ll likely have bets around both.

• The Raiders compiled one of their best rushing performances of the season around Sincere McCormick last week. He’ll likely get another larger opportunity at carries, but this isn’t a matchup I want to attack in a game Las Vegas will likely lean pass-heavy.

• The air should be the path of least resistance on the other side of the ball, too

- Raiders defense success rate allowed | 2024 season
  - Run defense: 5th
  - Pass defense: 22nd

• Tampa Bay is still splitting carries enough with Rachaad White (10-plus carries in each of the last three games) that I won’t be on Bucky Irving’s rushing over here. But I don’t want to bet his unders either, given how efficient he’s been.

• I expect the Buccaneers to funnel targets through Mike Evans down the stretch because 1) Mike Evans targets are generally a good thing for the offense and 2) it does seem like they want to get him to 1,000 yards to continue his streak

- But, the matchup here for TB is softer to slot receivers than it is to outside receivers. The Raiders are in the bottom half of the NFL in single-high coverage rate, which is where Evans has excelled
- Raiders receiving yards allowed | 2024 season
  - Outside receivers: 1,020 (7th fewest)
  - Slot receivers: 1,057 (6th most)
- Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton get the majority of slot snaps for this offense. It’s worth taking shots on either or both at what should be fairly low lines, though I don’t think there is a ton of alt-line upside for either.

***Angles I like: Raiders +7,* Aidan O’Connell overs paired with Brock Bowers/Jakobi Meyers receiving overs, Sterling Shepard/Cade Otton *reception overs***

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (PIT -6.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• We just got this matchup two weeks ago in a game that was impacted by weather, but both offenses still showed some explosiveness in the passing game. Mid-week, it doesn’t look like the weather will impact Sunday (temperature in the high 40s, rain supposed to hold off until night).

• On the Pittsburgh side of the ball, I’ll be attacking similar angles to two weeks ago with Russell Wilson’s ability to hit throws downfield against a Browns secondary that has given up deep ball production.

•Wilson has big single-high vs. two-high splits this season, and the Browns are in single-high 68% of the time (2nd highest behind only Pittsburgh)

- - Wilson vs. single-high: 84.7 PFF passing grade (3rd)
  - Wilson vs. two-high: 64.0 PFF passing grade (28th)

· Wilson’s 10.8-yard average target depth vs. single-high is the second-highest behind Anthony Richardson. Wilson wants to push the ball downfield.

• George Pickens leads the NFL in deep receptions (8) and receiving yards (268) since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7.

- Wilson completed four passes 20-plus yards downfield against the Browns in Week 12, but just one went to Pickens. I wouldn’t expect that to be the case again here, so I’ll be betting on a big game from Pickens.
- Might be an opportunity to bet Mike Williams alts with a low receiving yardage line if Calvin Austin III misses the game with a concussion. Williams could be more of a full workload if that’s the case, and he’s capable of pulling in one or two downfield passes from Wilson.

• Since Jaylen Warren returned from injury in Week 6, both he and Najee Harris have played 200-plus snaps.

- The backfield is split, and Cleveland has been good enough against the run that I won’t be targeting anything in the Steelers run game. The Browns have also allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to players lined up in the backfield this season (203).

• The biggest concern is Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s pass rush getting to Wilson. Garrett had three first-half sacks vs. Wilson in their first meeting, and despite no sacks in the second half, Garrett and Dalvin Tomlinson combined for 11 pressures after halftime.

• We saw an uncharacteristically low-volume game from Jameis Winston in the first meeting vs. Pittsburgh. The Browns leaned more on Nick Chubb in the snow with 20 carries (inefficient with 59 yards on those 20 carries).

• Cleveland has struggled to run the ball all season, ranking 31st in average yards per run play (3.1) ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks.

• The Pittsburgh run defense has actually been one of the weaker units in the NFL over their last five games:

Pittsburgh run defense since Week 8

- - - 29th in EPA per play allowed
    - 28th in success rate allowed
    - 29th in average yards per play allowed

• The issue is, I don’t know if Cleveland is equipped to capitalize on the lack of explosiveness we’ve seen from Nick Chubb and the offensive line injuries that the Browns have had to battle through in 2024.

• There are games coming up against the Eagles and Ravens where I’ll look to bet on this angle, though.

• I will be expecting more pass game volume for Winston in this spot than we saw on Thursday Night Football in the snow. He’s shown the ability to put up yardage in a hurry since taking over for Deshaun Watson.

• Joey Porter Jr. didn’t follow Jerry Jeudy in the first meeting (11 of 26 pass snaps across from him). There’s a chance he could see more of him after Jeudy’s big game on Monday Night Football last week (which would be a downgrade for Jeudy; Porter is Pittsburgh’s best cover CB and he tends to grab when he loses, which leads to more penalty yards than receiving yards against him).

• Winston’s style of play tends to lead to points, whether that’s for the Browns or for opposing offenses who get short fields due to turnovers. I’ll be on over 43.5.

• One last note: Whether it’s Germain Ifedi or Jedrick Wills Jr. returning at LT this week, the ROLB for Pittsburgh is in a good spot to pick up a sack

• The Steelers are expecting Alex Highsmith to return from injury. Both he and Nick Herbig have been excellent and should get 1-on-1s in a winnable matchup with how much attention the Browns have paid to T.J. Watt.

• I’ll be looking at Highsmith/Herbig sack props at what should be plus odds.

Angles I like: Over 43.5, Russell Wilson and George Pickens overs, Mike Williams alts if Calvin Austin III gets ruled out, Jameis Winston over pass attempts, Alex Highsmith/Nick Herbig sack props.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (TEN -3.5, 39.5 TOTAL)

• This will be Jacksonville’s first game against the Titans this season (they play again in Week 17).

• I’m always interested in playing the tails on volatile quarterbacks with upside against bad pass defenses. This qualifies as that type of spot for Will Levis against the Jaguars.

- Levis’ four-highest PFF passing grades of the season have all come in the last four weeks.
- Jacksonville has allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season (worst).
- Levis’ opening line is sitting at right around 205 yards this week. You’re getting good value on alt lines at 250+ against the worst pass defense in the NFL for a player playing his best football right now.

• Calvin Ridley has been by far the team’s top receiver when he gets single coverage, and the Jaguars are a man-heavy defense that uses single coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. He’s a natural pairing with Levis in any same-game parlays.

• I don’t know what to make of the fact that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (8) on just 20 catches, but he’s +185 for an anytime TD again this week.

• One of the bigger issues in Will Levis’ game is his propensity to take sacks (37 — fourth-most in NFL despite ranking 27th in total dropbacks) behind a bad OL, but Jacksonville has really struggled to generate any kind of quick pressure in recent weeks.

• Jaguars: 9% quick pressure rate since Week 8 (lowest in NFL).

• Jacksonville’s offense is not one equipped to elevate a backup QB like Mac Jones. Even after a comeback effort last week against Houston, the Jaguars are averaging -0.2 EPA per play and 4.2 yards per play with Jones on the field (both would be worst in the NFL for the full season).

• The consensus opinion of the Titans defense is likely higher than the results on the field (though Levis has put them in some bad situations with sacks and turnovers). Tennessee is 27th in points allowed per game and has allowed a TD on 31% of drives (third-highest behind Bengals and 49ers).

• Given the lack of ability to sustain drives we’ve seen from Jones (his 25% scoring drive rate would be lowest in NFL), I think there are viable builds around Titans alt spreads and/or Jaguars under 17.5 points on their team total.

• The Titans have also been a bottom-five offense at converting in the red zone, which could bring under 39.5 into play.

***Angles I like:* Will Levis and Calvin Ridley *overs, Titans -3.5, Jaguars under 17.5 team total.***

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (PHI -12.5, 45.5 TOTAL)

• This is an absolute smash spot for Saquon Barkley. He comes into this game averaging a league-high 6.1 yards per carry, the Eagles are 12.5-point home favorites and the Panthers are dead last in total rushing yards allowed this year (1,998).

• Barkley’s line reflects that at 111.5 early in the week. Any bet on Barkley will have to weigh the competitiveness of the game (Panthers staying close = good for Barkley, blowout = potential for them to rotate in other rushers late in the game) and how much Philadelphia wants to continue to feed Barkley to boost his season totals.

• I tend to lean toward staying away from Barkley given the blowout potential and extremely high lines going into the game.

• But, I will likely take a stab at Kenneth Gainwell anytime touchdown due to the potential for him getting run in the second half if Philadelphia is up big.

• Carries in the red zone for Eagles up 10-plus points in the second half

- - - - Barkley: 8
      - Hurts: 8
      - Gainwell: 6

• This matchup also sets up about as well as any in the NFL for Jalen Hurts as a passer.

- Hurts’ clean vs. pressured passing splits:
  - Clean: 9.6 YPA (2nd to Lamar Jackson), 115.3 passer rating (3rd)
  - Pressured: 5.3 YPA (27th), 72.1 passer rating (16th)
  - Panthers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL (25% pressure rate in 2024 is dead last) and are facing a talented Eagles OL
- The Panthers are also top-five in single-high coverage rate and have struggled on in-breaking routes from outside wide receivers. That sets up well for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who should be returning from injury this week.
- Jalen Hurts’ passing line is 209.5, which should also lead to reasonable totals for Brown and Smith. I don’t love attacking crazy alts because I think Philadelphia will be able to play from ahead, but Hurts/Brown/Smith overs are in play.

• Since returning in Week 9, Bryce Young is PFF’s 11th-highest-graded passer, but this will be the toughest test he’s faced to this point.

• Since Cooper DeJean got inserted into the lineup in Week 6, the Eagles have the NFL’s best defense by nearly any metric you want to look at

Lowest scoring drive rate allowed since Week 6

- - - Eagles: 23%
    - Lions: 29%
    - Chargers: 30%

• The Eagles have been difficult to run against since early in the season, and given that Philadelphia should put up points, we likely will see Young in a lot of obvious passing situations.

• I’m operating under the assumption that Philadelphia is able to control this game from the jump, and that the Panthers offense struggles more than we’ve seen the last two weeks vs. Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Angles I like: Jalen Hurts passing overs up to 250 yards, DeVonta Smith receiving overs (dependent on lines… Should be lower than Brown’s in a matchup that favors both), Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (MIN -5.5, 45.5 TOTAL)

• Bijan Robinson doesn’t consistently get the volume that we see from other elite running backs. He’s been over 20 carries in just three games this season.

• This is also an extremely difficult rushing matchup against the Vikings. Offenses don’t run much against them (31% run play rate against — 2nd lowest in NFL) and they’ve been stingy against the run when teams do go to the ground (3.1 yards allowed per run play — 3rd lowest)

• Where Robinson can have an impact in this game is as a receiver in what should be a high-volume passing game for the Falcons.

• Kirk Cousins has almost no mobility, and we know that Brian Flores is going to send pressure.

• Robinson leads the NFL in receptions (25) and receiving yards (197) on plays charted as checkdowns this season.

• The Vikings have allowed the most receptions (47) and second-most receiving yards (352) of any defense in the NFL on checkdowns this season, which marks good spot for Robinson receiving props

• That is likely all I’ll be attacking on the Atlanta offense, though. The Falcons are 27th in EPA per pass play over their last three games, and they’ve been just middle of the pack against zone blitzes, which Minnesota uses more than any other defense in the NFL.

• I don’t love anything on the Minnesota offensive side either, which pushes me toward betting the under 45.5 game total.

• The Falcons have done a good job of taking away deep shots (11 receptions allowed 20-plus yards downfield — 3rd fewest in NFL), but the area they’ve been hurt a bit has been on throws between the numbers and 10-19 yards downfield at intermediate depths (149.8 passer rating allowed is highest in NFL in this part of the field).

•Justin Jefferson dominates targets in this portion of the field (315 receiving yards on targets here is the most in the NFL).

***Angles I like:* Bijan Robinson rushing unders, Bijan Robinson receiving overs, Justin Jefferson *receiving overs, under 45.5 game total.***

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (MIA -5.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• With this being a divisional matchup, we have a multi-year sample of how the Jets have defended the Miami passing attack since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach.

- - Jets coverage scheme vs. Miami compared to every other offense since 2022
    - Cover 1: 15% vs. MIA | 26% vs. all other offenses
    - Cover 2: 2% vs. MIA | 2% vs. all other offenses
    - Cover 3: 30% vs. MIA | 29% vs. all other offenses
    - Cover 4: 30% vs. MIA | 23% vs. all other offenses
    - Cover 6: 18% vs. MIA | 11% vs. all other offenses

• The biggest takeaway here is that New York doesn’t play Cover 2 (which the Dolphins see a lot), but the Jets do spike their quarters and Cover 6 usage against Miami while decreasing man coverage rates.

• Dolphins target rates against C3, C4 and C6 with Tua Tagovailoa at QB this season:

Jonnu Smith: 30%

With Tagovailoa getting the ball out more underneath this season, I am going to continue betting Smith overs until the lines get raised higher. The Dolphins are looking for him a lot in this offense. He also avoids Sauce Gardner/D.J. Reed unlike Hill and Waddle on the outside.

- - Tyreek Hill: 26%
  - De’Von Achane: 23%
  - Jaylen Waddle: 6%

• Miami has really struggled to run the ball this season (31st in EPA per run play ahead of only the Raiders), and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup.

- - - The Jets have had issues at times this season stopping the run, but they’ve been relatively strong against outside zone runs, which the Miami run game is built around.
      - 3.4 yards per carry allowed on outside zone (5th fewest in NFL)

• Jalen Ramsey has been excellent this season for Miami, but he hasn’t been traveling with top wide receivers throughout games in 2024. Kader Kohou and Kendall Fuller both rank outside the top-90 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF’s advanced coverage grades.

• Davante Adams has 30 targets across the Jets’ last three games (3rd-most in NFL over that three-week span). Aaron Rodgers is forcing him the ball, and I think he’ll get volume in this matchup working out of the slot.

- - He’s really the only piece I have much interest in on the Jets offense. I might play around with Rodgers passing under parlayed with Adams receiving overs to tell the story of Rodgers forcing him the ball in an otherwise inefficient outing (and capturing inverse correlation in the odds).

***Angles I like:* Jonnu Smith receiving overs, De’Von Achane rushing unders, Davante Adams *receiving overs.***

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (NO -3.5, 41.5 TOTAL)

• The Giants have had real issues stopping the run with Dexter Lawrence on the field. But, him moving to IR (elbow) only further hurts one of the league’s worst run defenses.

Most yards allowed per run play (including penalty yardage) | 2024 season

- - Commanders: 4.6
  - Saints: 4.4
  - Bears: 4.3
  - Giants: 4.3

The Saints have leaned pretty heavily on the run this season under Klint Kubiak when looking at run rate over expected numbers. Alvin Kamara has had one of the more secure rushing roles in the NFL with 206 of the Saints’ 261 running back carries

- - This seems like a spot where Kamara will get a heavy workload with the Saints coming in as favorites and no Taysom Hill to add on to the NO run game.

• The Giants have also struggled mightily against deep passes, which is another major feature of the Saints under Kubiak.

- Derek Carr ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL in percentage of attempts 20-plus yards downfield this season. He’s also PFF’s highest-graded passer on those throws.
- The Giants are allowing a league-high 20.6 yards per play on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
- Given the injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the clear target as the deep threat in the Saints' offense.

• It sounds like Drew Lock will remain at quarterback for the Giants for at least another week. Lock has been extremely sensitive to pressure throughout his career, which could mean we see a better version of him in this matchup.

- Drew Lock clean vs. pressure splits in his career
  - Clean: 80.7 PFF passing grade
  - Pressured: 28.5 PFF passing grade
- Lock was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks last week against Dallas.
  - The Saints’ pass rush has been toward the bottom half of the NFL all season, particularly in recent weeks. New Orleans has posted a 28% pressure rate since Week 8 (28th in NFL).

• Malik Nabers has a 39% target rate against man coverage this season, and the Saints still run man at one of the higher rates in the NFL.

- The Saints’ man coverage has been ineffective, too (7.4 yards per pass play allowed in man is highest in NFL).

• The Saints have also ranked toward the bottom of the NFL against the run (5.0 yards per carry allowed is 2nd behind only the Giants for the full season).

• This all sets up for this game to have sneaky offensive potential with a 41.5-point total. I’ll be on the over, with SGPs built around both offenses.

***Angles I like:* Alvin Kamara rushing overs + anytime TD, Marquez Valdes-Scantling alt receiving overs + TD (long TD reception), Malik Nabers *receiving overs, over 40.5 game total.***

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (ARI -2.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• Every NFC West game carries significant importance down the stretch, with all four teams in the division clustered around .500 entering Week 14.

• We just saw this matchup play out in Week 12 as a low-scoring 16-6 win by the Seattle Seahawks at home.

• I’ve talked about it several times on the PFF Betting Show, but the Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the NFL when playing with a lead this season.

- Cardinals EPA per play rank on offense | 2024 season
  - Losing by more than one score: 15th
  - One-score game: 12th
  - Leading by more than one score: 5th
- We can potentially take advantage of this by playing Cardinals' first half paired with a larger alt spread for the full game. That tells the story of Arizona getting out to an early lead and closing out the game strong.

• One of the bigger issues for the Cardinals is that Seattle has been excellent at stopping the run in recent weeks, including in the first meeting with the Cardinals.

- James Conner: 7 carries for 8 yards
- Trey Benson: 4 carries for 18 yards

• That’s going to put more of the pressure on Kyler Murray to shoulder the offensive load if that remains true.

- Murray has had his two highest-volume passing games in the last two weeks with 45 attempts vs. the Vikings last week and 37 attempts vs. Seattle two weeks ago.
- Trey McBride was the clear top target for Murray in that Week 12 meeting with 12 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards. He did a lot of his damage after the catch with 6.3 yards after the catch per reception.

• The biggest issue for Seattle’s offense has been its pass protection, but Arizona almost needs to scheme up pressure for it to be effective.

- Cardinals: 17% quick pressure rate (28th in NFL)
- Geno Smith: 189 pressured dropbacks (most in NFL)
- Smith had success passing when Arizona brought the blitz in Week 12 but did take several sacks: 9-for-11, 135 yards (3 sacks taken)

• I don’t have much faith in Seattle’s ability to block up the run game up front. Kenneth Walker III is always capable of breaking a few tackles and generating explosives, but Seattle is averaging a league-low 0.6 yards before contact per designed run.

• Similar to Arizona, that likely puts much of the pressure on Smith to carry the offense — which has been the case all season.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the clear top target for Geno Smith in recent weeks.

- Jaxon Smith-Njigba yards per route run by week:
  - Weeks 1-7: 1.10
  - Weeks 8-13: 3.05

• My favorite angle will likely be betting on Geno Smith finding Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which leads to another big game for McBride

- Side note: McBride leads all tight ends in red-zone target rate but has no receiving touchdowns on the season. He’s due.

***Angles I like:* Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba overs, Trey McBride *overs. I also think there is a viable SGP angle around Arizona getting early success and controlling the game.***

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SF -3.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• This 49ers roster is beyond beat up. San Francisco is likely without Nick Bosa again this week against Chicago. The team is also still likely to be down Trent Williams on the other side of the ball, along with its top two running backs in Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason.

• The only defense to allow a touchdown on a higher percentage of their drives this season than San Francisco are the Jaguars, Panthers and Bengals.

- The 49ers are coming off a game where Buffalo just ran all over them in the snow, but the run defense has been an issue for San Francisco beyond just last week (28th in success rate allowed on run plays this year).
- Nick Bosa has a 20% pass-rush win rate this season (6th among all defenders with 150+ pass-rush snaps). The team’s next-highest is Maliek Collins (12% – 55th). Where does the pass rush come from if Bosa sits?

• A struggling pass rush is exactly what this Bears offense needs. Caleb Williams’ 49 sacks taken are eight more than any other quarterback.

• D’Andre Swift’s rushing yard line will likely be in the mid-to-high 40s, and I’m willing to take a swing on that in this spot given the aforementioned 49ers run defense issues.

• Rome Odunze is probably my favorite piece among the Bears receiving corps. San Francisco does a great job against outside wide receivers (2nd-fewest yards allowed), but the Bears rotate through receivers in the slot, and Odunze is part of that rotation.

- Odunze is the vertical slot threat with an ADOT over 14.0 yards when he lines up in the slot. That’s one area where San Francisco has been a little weaker (10th in receiving yards allowed on throws 10-plus yards downfield to slot receivers).

• On the 49ers side, I think Isaac Guerendo and George Kittle are the top players to target.

- 51% of Guerendo’s rushing yards this year have come on explosive runs (10-plus yards), and Chicago has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate. The Bears’ run defense has been an issue in recent weeks, and Guerendo should get most of the run game work with McCaffrey and Mason out.
- The Bears have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to inline tight ends this season, and they’re one of the biggest Cover 3 defenses in the NFL. Kittle averages a team-high 3.03 YPRR against Cover 3 this season and does a lot of his damage inline.

***Angles I like:* D’Andre Swift and Isaac Guerendo rushing overs, George Kittle *receiving overs and anytime TD, CHI +3.5.***

BUFFALO BILLS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (BUF -3.5, 49.5 TOTAL)

• There are going to be opportunities here for Kyren Williams given how the Bills are set up structurally. Buffalo wants to take away explosives and play with light boxes on early downs at one of the higher rates in the NFL.

- Bills defense in light boxes on 1st and 2nd down | 2024 season
  - 46% of plays (9th-highest)
  - 6.0 yards allowed per run play (2nd-highest)
- The Rams have a 30% run rate vs. light boxes on early downs (7th-highest)
  - Kyren Williams vs. light boxes on early downs
    - 4.9 yards per carry and 3.5 yards before contact per run
    - 54 attempts (2nd-most in NFL to Bijan Robinson)

• The Bills’ pass rush has underwhelmed over the last five weeks

- 19% quick pressure rate (23rd)
- 28% pressure rate (27th)

• That’s notable because Matthew Stafford has some of the bigger clean vs. pressure splits in the NFL. If the Rams can run the ball and keep Stafford clean, this matchup sets up well for Los Angeles despite Buffalo’s success on defense on the whole this season.

- Stafford clean vs. pressured
  - Clean: 90.3 PFF passing grade, 8.0 YPA, 110.3 rating
  - Pressured: 28.2 PFF passing grade, 5.3 YPA, 50.1 rating

• Cooper Kupp is my favorite target among the Rams wide receivers. He has a 31% target rate against two-high coverage shells (highest on offense) and gets the majority of the snaps in the slot.

- The Bills have allowed 995 yards to slot receivers (9th-most) and 842 yards to outside wide receivers (fewest in NFL)

• The Bills have also allowed by far the highest number of targets to running backs of any defense in the NFL. Even though Williams isn’t a prolific receiving back, it’s not a bad matchup to take receiving overs for him.

- Most targets allowed to RBs this season
  - Bills: 91
  - Buccaneers: 79
  - Broncos: 78

• On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense is coming off back-to-back games where they’ve struggled to stop the run after a good stretch of play in run defense mid-season.

- In particular, they’ve had problems this season on duo runs, which make up a significant portion of Buffalo’s rushing attack. Los Angeles is 27th in success rate and EPA allowed per rush against duo.

• The Rams’ pass rush has been one of the biggest strengths on their defense (38% pressure rate on the season — 6th-highest in NFL), but Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at making plays with bodies around him.

- Buffalo has posted 5.7 yards per pressured dropback (2nd-highest in NFL behind GB)

• We should expect a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 6 from the Rams given their most frequent coverage types this season.

- Khalil Shakir vs. C3 / C6: 125 routes, 37 catches on 43 targets, 380 yards (3.04 YPRR and 34% target rate are both by far highest on Buffalo’s offense)

Angles I like: Rams +4.5, Kyren Williams rushing overs, Khalil Shakir receiving overs. There are viable builds around the Rams winning in lower-scoring game around their rushing game, as well as Bills winning a high-scoring game that pushes Rams’ pass game (Cook overs, Shakir Overs, Kupp overs).

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (KC -3.5, 42.5 TOTAL)

• I’ve been attacking the KC pass defense since Jaylen Watson went down, and I’m not going to stop here in a matchup against Justin Herbert, who enters this matchup ranked fourth among qualifiers in PFF passing grade.

- Chiefs pass defense since Jaylen Watson injury (Weeks 8-13)
  - 26th in EPA / pass allowed
  - 26th in total passing yards allowed
- The other element here is that the pass-defense struggles have turned Kansas City into a pretty heavy pass funnel (4th in average yards allowed per run play). The J.K. Dobbins injury could lead the Chargers to lean even more into the pass, which we’ve seen since their early-season bye

• Ladd McConkey has been excellent vs. man coverage this season (4th-highest PFF receiving grade), which KC utilizes at a top-10 rate, but his status is still up in the air due to multiple injuries (shoulder and knee sprains). I’m a little scared off of McConkey's overs, given the possibility of either injury flaring up if he tries to go, which we saw happen in the second half vs. Atlanta last week.

• That leads me to believe that Josh Palmer and Will Dissly will be the primary pieces I’m interested in in the receiving game.

- KC plays a decent amount of man coverage, but they’re also second in two-high coverage usage behind only Minnesota
- Quentin Johnston sees a significant target rate decrease vs. two-high looks, while Will Dissly’s 210 receiving yards are only eight fewer than McConkey’s against those coverages
- Herbert has also been looking for Palmer downfield. A few weeks ago against the Ravens (another defense that plays a lot of two-high), Palmer had 259 air yards. A few of those downfield shots connect, and you’re sitting in a good spot for Palmer alts.

• As for the Chargers defense against KC, I’m at a point where I’m going to fade the Chargers’ defensive success against elite offenses (like Bengals and Ravens), but their improvement under Jesse Minter is real. This Chiefs offense is far from elite.

- Patrick Mahomes’ 32 sacks taken are already four more than he has taken in any other season of his career
- KC ranks just 21st in EPA per pass play against two-high coverage shells, which the Chargers also deploy frequently

• This is purely narrative-driven, but it feels fitting that the Chargers (after years of Chargering) would be able to pull out a one-score win here under Jim Harbaugh over a KC team that has lived off one-score wins this season.

Angles I like: Chargers moneyline, Herbert passing overs tied to Palmer/Dissly receiving overs, Chiefs under 23.5 total points.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (CIN -5.5, 49.5 TOTAL)

• The Cowboys’ pass defense has shown signs of improvement since getting Micah Parsons back in Week 10, but a lot of that has been carried by high-leverage plays like sacks and turnovers.

- 8 turnovers forced on pass plays (T-2nd-most in NFL)
- 16 sacks (most in NFL)
- 33% quick pressure rate

• The Bengals’ offensive line can be attacked, but Joe Burrow has done an excellent job all season of making the most of plays when pressure does get home.

- 17% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 11th among QBs (had been a larger issue earlier in Burrow’s career)
- And, Burrow leads all QBs in PFF passing grade when throwing on the move this season to go along with 8.5 yards per attempt and a 114.3 passer rating on those plays (both top-3 marks among all quarterbacks)
  - I think the Cowboys’ pass rush will have less of an impact than we’ve seen the last few weeks

• Cincinnati has had the best offense in the NFL with Tee Higgins healthy and on the field.

- Most yards per play | 2024 season
  - Bengals with Higgins on the field: 6.7
  - Ravens: 6.3
  - Lions: 6.0
  - Bengals with Higgins off the field: 4.7 (would be 26th)

• The Bengals are one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the NFL, so the safest bet is targeting the passing game for Cincinnati.

• Dallas is tied for the most yards allowed per reception after the catch in the NFL this season at 6.5. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in yards after the catch (545). This sets up as a potential blowup spot for Chase against a secondary with injury concerns at one of its cornerback spots.

• Cooper Rush has been getting the ball out of his hands quicker than any other quarterback in the NFL at 2.26 seconds on average.

- There isn’t much explosiveness to the Cowboys’ passing game, but that quick time to throw also neutralizes what has been a quickly deteriorating Cowboys offensive line
- Trey Hendrickson has an edge over Chuma Edoga at left tackle, but I’m not worried about the Bengals generating much pressure in this matchup

• It’s a good matchup on paper for the Cowboys’ tight ends. Cincinnati has allowed 783 receiving yards (6th-most) and eight touchdowns (2nd-most) to tight ends this season.

- Jake Ferguson is trending toward returning after a two-game absence due to a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker has also started to deliver some of the most productive games of his career since Ferguson went down in Week 11 vs. Houston
  - If Ferguson is back, he’s the safer option, but there could be a live betting opportunity based on usage early in the game between the two tight ends

• Neither team runs the ball all that often or all that well, but this is a spot where both defenses are bottom-five in EPA per play allowed against the run as well as two running backs who have very secure roles in Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle.

- Offensive snaps played since Week 9 (with ranks among RBs)
  - Chase Brown: 248 (3rd)
  - Rico Dowdle: 219 (9th)

Angles I like: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase alts (I’m comfortable throwing Chase Brown props into SGPs alongside Burrow/Chase in Bengals onslaught builds), Jake Ferguson overs (potential Schoonmaker live bet depending on early game usage and game script).