NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets: Taysom Hill, Bijan Robinson and more

2T9NBA6 Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against New Orleans Saints linebacker Zack Baun (53) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints: Over his last seven games, Taysom Hill is third in the NFL in red-zone carries and has seen three red-zone targets (one of which resulted in a score).

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: While Robinson split the red-zone work earlier in the season, he has garnered 100% of the Falcons' carries inside the 10-yard line over the last month.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

• Taysom Hill has been one of the league's very best runners this season. The do-it-all tight end ranks second in rushing yards over expected and near the top of the league in expected points added (EPA) per rush.

• The Saints take on a New York Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most EPA per rush and ranks toward the bottom of the league in most run-defense metrics.

• Over his last seven games, Taysom Hill is third in the NFL in red-zone carries and has seen three red-zone targets (one of which resulted in a score). Always a red-zone threat, look for Hill to get his opportunities against a Giants defense that struggles to defend the run.

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

• Teams are running the ball far more often than expected inside the Pathers' 10-yard line, calling a run play 12% over expected in these situations.

• While Robinson split the red-zone work earlier in the season, he has 100% of the Falcons' carries from inside the 10-yard line over the last month.

• Facing a Panthers run defense that is nearly last in every efficiency metric and has allowed more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL, Robinson should have plenty of room to work in Week 15.


Long shot: WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs

Toney played a season-high 45% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps last week against the Bills. On average, he played around 10% of the snaps in his three games before Week 14.

• Toney has almost a 35% target rate since joining Kansas City, a top-five mark in the NFL over that time. He also gets schemed handoffs in the red zone.

• Despite their offensive struggles, the Chiefs still have one of the better offenses in the NFL and see the red zone often, where they will likely scheme Toney touches.

• The value here is that Toney is priced as simply a gadget player who will not see the field.

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