Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford excels from within structure against a depleted Washington Commanders front
• As we studied last summer, quarterbacks who rarely scramble and fail to create positive results on scrambles will be far more sensitive to matchups against good defenses than those who scramble and scramble well.
• Quarterbacks who scramble often are less sensitive to tough matchups than the more stationary signal-callers who need plays in structure to succeed.
• While Matthew Stafford can scramble with some success when needed, he is most productive when he gets to play within the structure of the offense.
• Stafford should stay in structure often against a reeling Washington defense that ranks last in pressure rate and second-to-last in quick pressure rate since the team traded Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
• Stafford has a top-five PFF grade and ranks top-10 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback from a clean pocket, though he has been kept clean at only a league-average rate.
• Against a weak pass rush, Stafford should continue his dominance against a Commanders secondary that is also bleeding explosive plays.
Bets to make: Rams team total, Rams spreads, and parlays with Stafford and Rams alt spreads.
Matchup angles: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes capitalizes on the New England Patriots‘ blitz and man-happy scheme
• While Patrick Mahomes has struggled compared to past seasons, he is still one of the very best in the game, and his depressed pricing should only make us more inclined to bet on him in this spot. But why?
• Mahomes excels against man coverage and the blitz, two prominent features of the Patriots' defense. The Patriots have blitzed at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
While Mahomes is closer to the middle of the pack when the defense doesn't send an extra rusher, he is fifth in EPA per play against the blitz in 2023. Over his career, he has been the best quarterback in the NFL against the blitz.
As for man coverage? The Patriots have played man coverage at a top-five rate all season and the second-most man coverage in the NFL over the past six weeks.
While Mahomes is relatively average against zone coverage, he remains dominant against man. Again, he has been the best quarterback in the NFL against man coverage over his career.
Bets to make: Chiefs spreads, Mahomes passing props, and same-game parlays that combine these two bets.
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