• Bet Alec Pierce's longest reception to go over 16.5 yards: Pierce is the vertical threat out wide for this offense, with three straight weeks of hauling in a catch for more yards than this number.
• Bet T.J. Hockenson to go over 52.5 receiving yards: We should have a passing game script throughout this game, and Kansas City's defense ranks 27th in expected points allowed per play on targets to tight ends.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
We went 2-1 on last week’s props with a tough half-yard loss on the receiving yards over for Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson. We’re back at it with three more plays we like for Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Kansas City Chiefs‘ defense ranks 27th in expected points allowed per play on targets to tight ends, surrendering the second-highest success rate on such targets, the fifth-most receptions, the fifth-most receiving yards and the fifth-most yards per coverage snap.
Dating back to last season, Hockenson has 25 receptions when Kirk Cousins is pressured, just two shy of Justin Jefferson for the team lead. Kansas City figures to blitz periodically as well as have Chris Jones win up the middle against an interior offensive line that has struggled in pass protection.
We should have a passing game script throughout this game, as Minnesota likely won't stop throwing the ball even if they’re up multiple scores, given the mismatch between their defense and the Chiefs' offense.
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Giants rank 29th in expected points allowed per dropback, and they’re currently third in the NFL with a 42.7% blitz rate. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has often been leaving two rookie cornerbacks on islands out wide. Needless to say, it has not gone well.
Dating back to last season, Tyreek Hill is the highest-graded wide receiver in the NFL against the blitz, and his 18 receptions on passes thrown in 2.5 seconds or less in 2023 ranks 11th. Miami will be without its two best offensive linemen, left tackle Terron Armstead and right guard Robert Hunt, so expect them to get the ball out very quickly.
The game script is a concern here, with Miami potentially building a huge lead early in a game with a 12.5-point spread as of this writing. Hill still had five targets and three receptions in the second half of the Dolphins' 70-20 blowout win over the Denver Broncos, with Miami carrying a 35-13 lead into the locker room at halftime.
Indianapolis Colts WR Alec Pierce longest reception over 16.5 yards (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
The Tennessee Titans‘ secondary has been remarkably susceptible to deep passes dating back to last season, ranking 31st in expected points allowed on balls thrown 10-plus yards downfield while allowing the fourth-most receptions and the third-most yards on such throws. Tennessee’s forced incompletion rate on throws 10-plus yards downfield ranks 27th, and they’ve missed the fifth-most tackles.
Pierce is the vertical threat out wide for this offense, with three straight weeks of hauling in a catch for more yards than this number. Pierce’s 17.5-yard average depth of target is a full yard clear of this line and ranks eighth in the NFL. Throwing deep is what quarterback Anthony Richardson does best as a passer right now, and running against this Titans front is always a challenge.
So far in 2023, out of 93 cornerbacks with at least 25 snaps lined up out wide, Titans cornerback Kristian Fulton’s 41.8 coverage grade ranks 90th. Sean Murphy-Bunting has played very well on the other side, but Pierce plays an equal number of snaps on either side of the field and we’re looking for one reception here.
Colts starting center Ryan Kelly, PFF’s highest-graded center so far in 2023 with a league-leading 84.3 pass-blocking grade, has practiced in full the past two days after missing Weeks 3 and 4.
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