Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: The Miami Dolphins mitigate the Philadelphia Eagles' pass rush and throw at will
• Two important notes stick out from this chart. The first is that the Eagles have been average at generating quick pressure despite their all-world talent on the defensive line. The second is that the Dolphins have been terrific at avoiding quick pressure, largely a feature of how quickly the team has gotten rid of the ball.
• Tua Tagovailoa has the quickest time to throw in the NFL yet still maintains an above-average average target depth.
• If it cannot generate quick pressure to stop this Dolphins attack, The Philadelphia defense will need its secondary to lock down the opposing receivers.
• However, the secondary does not have the personnel to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Josh Jobe has been the third-worst corner at preventing separation this year, Bradberry has been the 18th-worst, and Slay has the 24th-worst. And if Slay cannot go, the team will turn to SCB Josiah Scott, who has never earned a PFF coverage grade above 60.0.
Best bets: Despite the Eagles being priced as the eighth-best defense in the NFL, the Dolphins passing offense seems to have a huge matchup advantage. I’ll be playing Tua alts and Tua alts + Miami spreads, and I'll be building some same-game parlays telling the story of Miami dominating the Philadelphia front.
Matchup Angle: The Cleveland Browns’ man-heavy defense shuts down the Indianapolis Colts offense
• No team has played more man coverage than the Cleveland Browns, whose man coverage rate has jumped steeply over the last few weeks. As we studied at PFF, man coverage reflects the talent on the field: In man coverage, the better player always tends to win the battle.
• The Colts receivers have really struggled to generate separation and production against man coverage. They will have their hands tied with Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson Jr., who have done a terrific job of preventing separation.
• Add in that Gardner Minshew rarely scrambles and struggles when doing so, which magnifies a poor environment even more.
Best bets: Markets are already low on the Colts, but this is one of the worst situational spots, given the above matchup angles. I’ll be betting on the Colts being the lowest-scoring team +1200 (sixth-shortest odds), as well as Browns spreads, Colts team under and perhaps some under props.
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