• Take the Rams (-3) over the Steelers: Look for the Steelers to play like the bottom-10 team they truly are against an above-average Rams squad.
• Back the Seahawks (-8) against the Cardinals: There is real blowout potential in this one for a Seattle squad that may be the most undervalued team in the NFL.
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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
The NFL season rolls along as we enter Week 7. This slate provides a great opportunity to fade the most overvalued team in the league that is incredibly lucky to have a winning record. We’ll also be buying a team due for serious positive regression for the second straight week. Let’s get into it.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3, 44)
The Steelers beat the Ravens in Week 5 largely thanks to a late pick by Lamar Jackson and seven key drops by Baltimore pass-catchers. They had little business winning that game, as they had a significantly worse success rate than the Ravens and benefited from unsustainable big plays. Pittsburgh has had a worse success rate than its opponent in every game this season but somehow sits at 3-2.
Los Angeles has outperformed preseason expectations and sits at 3-3 after an impressive start to the season. The Rams have found this relative success despite playing a tough schedule, including the 49ers, Seahawks, Bengals and Eagles. That gauntlet makes their underlying stats even more impressive, as they rank 13th in both NET EPA+ and NET success rate.
Let’s group the Rams together with teams that have winning records and compare NET success rates through Week 7.
Not only do the Steelers not fit in with these winning teams, but the company they share in terms of NET success rate features the worst teams in the league. Pittsburgh sits 28th in the NFL, right behind the disastrous 1-5 New England Patriots.
Additionally, the quarterback discrepancy in this game is among the largest across the whole slate. Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career, grading out a top-five passer and ranking ninth in quarterback EPA+. Much of this production was without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who has looked great after missing the first four games of the season. On the other side, Kenny Pickett ranks 29th out of 33 quarterbacks in PFF grade and 29th in quarterback EPA+. The market is not accounting enough for the massive difference between these two signal-callers.
A lot of praise has been given to this Steelers defense, but I don’t buy them as an elite unit. They rank in the top 12 in defensive EPA+ and success rate, but those numbers are severely inflated by their performances against the Browns and Raiders, who have been two of the worst offenses in the league. Pittsburgh’s three starting cornerbacks all rank in the bottom 35 by their PFF grade and are severely outmatched against Kupp and rookie standout Puka Nacua. Look for Stafford and this passing offense to be able to move the ball with ease all game long.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -3 (to -4.5)
This is up there with my favorite plays of the season, as the gap between these teams is far greater than this line implies. Look for the Steelers to play like the bottom-10 team they truly are against an above-average Rams squad.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 44.5)
We had the Seahawks last week as three-point underdogs against the Bengals in a game that they really should have won outright but instead lost 17-13. Seattle failed to capitalize on its red-zone trips, coming away with just three points from four red-zone opportunities in the second half. Red-zone success is volatile week to week, and the Seahawks' struggles last week can be attributed to simple variance as much as anything. I think that will even out over the course of the season, which will result in a big scoring boost for this offense, which has moved the ball really well.
The Seahawks are also due for some positive regression on late downs. Seattle ranks third in the league in NET EPA+ on first and second downs but has taken massive steps back on third and fourth downs, ranking third worst in NET EPA+ on those key late downs.
That is easily the most extreme split in the league; it just has to even out over the course of the season.
The Cardinals profile as the exact opposite of the Seahawks. They have benefited from immense overperformance on high-leverage late downs. Arizona is getting some serious respect in the market here despite having one of the worst rosters in the league. A lot of that has been hidden by their late-down success, which won’t last forever.
From an on-field perspective, the Cardinals' secondary has little chance of shutting down Geno Smith and his weapons. Arizona ranks fifth worst in expected points added per dropback and has a dismal 47.4 PFF coverage grade, which is second worst in the league. They also are unable to generate pressure, with the NFL’s second-lowest pass-rush win rate. Geno Smith struggled against the Bengals’ pass rush last week but won’t have to deal with that level of heat in Week 7.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 (to -10)
There is real blowout potential in this one for a Seattle squad that may be the most undervalued team in the NFL. Lay the points as long as this spread is in the single digits.
Player Prop Best Bet: DeVonta Smith o55.5 Receiving Yards
Using PFF’s expected yards metric, we can identify players whose actual production doesn't match their expected production based on the usage and targets they are garnering. One of the players who has underperformed the most based on their expected stats is stud Eagles wideout DeVonta Smith. Smith is averaging 66.6 expected receiving yards per game while producing 55.6 actual receiving yards per game, which is the 12th-most extreme underperformance among pass-catchers.
Smith should also have a favorable matchup against the Dolphins secondary, as fellow receiver A.J. Brown should command his usual share of attention from the opposing top cornerback. Miami has a significant drop-off from CB1 to CB2, from Xavien Howard to Eli Apple, although both have struggled immensely to start the season. Smith should see a lot of Apple in this game, which is a matchup he will be able to exploit.
Look for DeVonta Smith to have a big game and clear this line that is based on his actual production rather than his expected production.
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