• Bet Bryce Young OVER 223.5 passing yards: In a contest where the Panthers are expected to be playing from behind yet again, there is a good chance Young has his best game of the season.
• Bet Calvin Ridley OVER 52.5 receiving yards: Outside receivers have torched the Steelers this season.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
We are fast approaching the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season.
Last week’s assortment of bets did not go too well if you were looking to win one unit per bet, but there was a 47-to-1 winner on Thursday night thanks to Khalil Shakir racking up the most receiving yards.
D’Andre Swift came up one yard shy of covering his line against the Dolphins, and Latavius Murray had the expected opportunities to cash his touchdown bet but got stuffed at the one-yard line and tallied negative yardage on a carry from the four-yard line.
Our bets are +3.90 units for a 7.53% return on investment this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans — Bryce Young Over 223.5 Pass Yards (+102 Caesars)
Bryce Young and the Panthers have not played against a secondary as bad as the Texans' this year, and while the public opinion of the rookie signal-caller was negative after a few weeks, it is easier to understand now that we see how well the Falcons and Saints have done in coverage throughout the first half of the season. Both teams rank in the top six in success rate allowed on passing downs.
Things got easier over the past few weeks when the Panthers played the Vikings, Lions and Dolphins, and despite their covering this number only once in those three starts, Young has performed much better than he had previously. The Texans are slightly worse than all of those teams in coverage yards allowed per snap, but they have also played a much weaker schedule of passing offenses and allowed 329 yards to Desmond Ridder and 353 yards to Derek Carr most recently.
Tavierre Thomas is returning in the slot for the Texans, but they are still weak at cornerback. In a contest where the Panthers are expected to be playing from behind yet again, there is a good chance Young has his best game of the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Calvin Ridley Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel) & 100+ Receiving Yards (+700 Caesars)
Outside receivers are the Steelers' kryptonite. Puka Nacua continued his excellent season and went for 154 yards against this secondary last week, and he likely would have recorded more had the spot decision on the Steelers' fourth-down sneak gone the way most expected.
Ravens receiver Nelson Agholor went for 64 yards the week prior in a dismal offensive performance from both teams — the lowest total from any team’s best outside receiver against Pittsburgh. Brandon Aiyuk (eight catches, 129 yards), Amari Cooper (seven catches, 90 yards), Davante Adams (13 catches, 172 yards) and Nico Collins (seven catches, 168 yards) complete the set of unbelievably productive wide receiver play against this Steelers defense.
Calvin Ridley has been hit or miss this year, with two 100-plus-yard games and five games with 40 yards or less, but he has produced against some excellent secondaries in Atlanta, New Orleans and Kansas City. The Jaguars spread the ball around quite a bit, so while it may not be Ridley’s week, he is Jacksonville's best outsider receiver and this is a high-upside bet amid an incredible matchup.
The Jaguars are playing on the road and the spread is only two points, so the expectation is that this game will remain competitive — meaning passing is likely to be an option throughout the game.
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