• QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams — over 2.5 rushing yards (-120): With a line of 2.5 yards, we need Stafford to take off from the pocket just once for this to go over. And this year, Stafford has been using his legs more than in years past, going over this line in five of his seven games.
• WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles — longest reception over 11.5 yards: Smith has put on some sub-par performances in the past three weeks, but he’s still getting targeted down the field. He’s gone over this line in four of his seven games this year, and his average target depth is 13.2 yards downfield. He’s also seen 11 targets of 20-plus air yards, which ranks 12th among all wide receivers.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 2.5 rushing yards (-120)
• The Dallas Cowboys defense generates more quick pressure than any team in the NFL. Their ability to get after the passer is probably their best attribute on defense, but it also makes them vulnerable to quarterbacks running the ball. This year, they’ve faced 34 quarterback rush attempts (eighth-most) and given up 160 rushing yards (fifth-most).
• With a line of 2.5 yards, we need Stafford to take off from the pocket just once for this to go over. And this year, Stafford has been using his legs more than in years past, going over this line in five of his seven games.
• Given that the Rams are 7-point underdogs, we will likely get a lot of dropbacks from Stafford, increasing his chances of going over his line.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: Longest reception over 11.5 yards (-110)
• The Commanders' pass defense has actually been good on a play-for-play basis, ranking ninth in passing success rate allowed through Week 7. However, their problem is their tendency to allow explosive plays through the air, as they’ve allowed 30 completions of 20-plus yards, the most among all defenses.
• Smith has put on some sub-par performances in the past three weeks, but he’s still getting targeted down the field. He’s gone over this line in four of his seven games this year, and his average target depth is 13.2 yards downfield. He’s also seen 11 targets of 20-plus air yards, which ranks 12th among all wide receivers.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 2.5 receptions (-113)
• The Broncos have fielded arguably the worst pass defense in the league, and they really struggle to guard running backs. They’ve allowed 47 completions to the position through seven weeks, an average of 6.7 completions a game. While Jerick McKinnon is the preferred pass-catching back for the Chiefs, Pacheco still gets a good amount of work.
• Pacheco has gone over this number three times in the last four weeks, and the one under came against the blitz-happy Vikings when he was used more as a pass-blocker than a receiver.
• He caught six passes just six weeks ago vs. Denver, and not much has changed for either team in the weeks since. The expected cold weather also plays into Pacheco’s favor, as it should lead to more short throws.
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