• Bet Ezekiel Elliott OVER 8.5 rushing attempts: The Patriots are dealing with a bevy of wide receiver injuries and face a team that just traded away two star defensive linemen, so rushing attempts are likely to be more frequent for them this week.
• Bet Aaron Jones OVER 21.5 receiving yards: Jones’ availability dictates how Green Bay likes to run their offense, and the team will look to get him involved in a favorable matchup.
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This article last week went 2-1, with Bryce Young going over his passing total against the Texans late in the game and Calvin Ridley continuing to punish a vulnerable Steelers secondary with 83 receiving yards in the rain, going over his 52.5-yard line but under the alternate line of 99.5. He had one catch for 11 yards in the second half, so it was a disappointing way to lose an excellent position.
Our following bets ended up losing. Tyson Bagent threw a 41-yard completion on the first offensive play of the game for the Bears but dinked and dunked his way through the rest of the game to fall short of his 199.5 passing yards line. Michael Mayer overs (2.5 receptions, 21.5 yards) didn't hit, as he caught just one ball for 19 yards in a dismal offensive performance.
These NFL previews have yielded 2.41 units of profit (win one unit per bet) for a 4.05% return on investment this season.
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots — Ezekiel Elliott Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-113 Caesars)
Ezekiel Elliott is still the backup in New England, but he is playing more than 30% of snaps and seeing around eight carries per game. The Patriots' past five games have been blowout losses to the Cowboys and Saints, a road defeat to the Raiders, a win against the Bills at home where Elliott saw 11 carries and, most recently, a big loss to the Dolphins.
This week, however, New England is a 2.5-point favorite at home to the Commanders. The Patriots are dealing with a bevy of wide receiver injuries and face a team that just traded away two star defensive linemen, so rushing attempts are likely to be more frequent for them this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers — Aaron Jones Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)
Having spent most of the season injured after pulling a hamstring in Week 1, Jones returned two weeks ago on a pitch count before ramping up slightly last week against the Vikings, playing 51% of snaps. That figure is likely to continue to rise.
This is a great matchup compared to the Vikings game, however, as the Rams' linebacker unit features Christian Rozeboom and his 50.7 PFF coverage grade and backup Jake Hummel, who has played only nine coverage snaps all year, replacing the injured Ernest Jones for the first full-time action he has seen this season.
The excellent matchup is the main reason for this bet, but the Packers' play style is helpful because they run screens at a decent rate — and that rate has jumped markedly with Aaron Jones back on the field over the past two weeks. Jordan Love is also not the check-down king that people thought he might be, sporting the second-highest average depth of target of all quarterbacks with 100-plus dropbacks. Jones’ availability dictates how Green Bay likes to run this offense, and the team will look to get him involved in a favorable matchup.
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