PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
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ANDREW ERICKSON
CHASE EDMONDS: OVER 36.5 RUSHING YARDS
This one is a layup, folks. Chase Edmonds has rushed for at least 46 rushing yards in all but two games this season. The Cardinals running back was also finally fully healthy in Week 7 and took back the starting role, playing a season-high 69% of snaps and handling a season-high 15 carries.
With a potential shootout on deck Thursday night against the Green Bay Packers, look for Edmonds to glide past his rushing prop. Green Bay ranks 31st in explosive run rate allowed, setting the stage for Edmonds to unleash his second-ranked 5.8 yards per carry.
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Jaylen Waddle: UNDER 64.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Waddle sailed over his 61.5 receiving yards prop last week against the Atlanta Falcons. I underestimated the potential of DeVante Parker missing another game, so just wait to bet the prop until more news comes out about Parker’s availability for Week 8.
Waddle's chances of going over this higher receiving line are slimmer with Parker probable to come back. The matchup versus the Buffalo Bills defense is also tough — the Bills have suffocated slot receivers this season, allowing the third-fewest yards per target (6.3) and second-lowest passer rating (48.4) to slot receivers.
When Miami played Buffalo in Week 2, Waddle was held to just six catches for 48 yards on eight targets. Even if Waddle sees another eight targets, it will be difficult for him to accumulate enough yardage based on his 5.7 average depth of target (aDOT), a mark that ranks 99th out of 102 qualifying wide receivers this season.
BEN BROWN
Matt Ryan: OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS
Matty Ice finally looks to be rounding into form for the 2021 season, posting at least an 88.0 PFF passing grade in each of his past three games. He now sits ninth in PFF passing grade on the season, with his full complement of pass-catchers now fully healthy.
Kyle Pitts proved he's an absolute coverage nightmare for every single defender in the NFL in Week 7. There are few players with his downfield ability and catch radius right now.
The teams in this matchup seem to be heading in opposite directions. The Panthers were the toast of the NFL through the first three weeks, mainly because of a defense that led the NFL in pressure percentage. However, things have changed quickly, as the Panthers' defense is now 10th in pressure rate and allowed a banged-up Giants’ team to move the ball at will against them last week.
The perfect way to play the emerging Falcons while fading the Panthers is to target Ryan’s over passing yardage prop. This number is simply too low, given the current state of both teams. The betting market has already pushed the spread in Atlanta's direction, and the only way the Falcons cover the three-point spread is via Ryan’s arm.
Michael Pittman Jr.: OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Pittman has established himself as the clear No. 1 receiving option in the Colts' passing offense. He rarely leaves the field, playing 92% of offensive snaps and running a route on 95% of dropbacks. He saw 171 air yards in a rain-soaked Sunday night matchup and now has over 35% of the Colts' total air yards on the season. More impressive is that he is also being targeted at all depths of the field, with 23.5% of his targets coming 20 or more yards downfield.
The Titans have put up a respectable coverage grade, ranking 13th in PFF’s opponent-adjusted metric. The problem is Caleb Farley — now on the injured reserve — was the one Titans cornerback capable of containing a big-bodied receiver like Pittman. Now, the second-year wideout should see a high percentage of his routes against Greg Mabin, who has played only 326 coverage snaps dating back to 2017 and never posted a coverage grade above 51.0 in his four prior seasons.
With the rain delaying Pittman’s breakout game by one week, now is the time to buy into the explosion this Sunday.
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