• Target the over: Given the firepower of these two offenses, it’s no surprise oddsmakers set a hefty 48-point game total. However, PFF’s Betting Model suggests even that may be too low, projecting this matchup to slightly exceed 49 points.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) [Total: 48]
Game Overview
Week 11’s Sunday slate of games comes to a conclusion with a battle between AFC playoff hopefuls in the Cincinnati Bengals & Los Angeles Chargers.
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are riding high on a three-game winning streak, with victories in four of their last five outings. LA has been dominant against the spread, boasting a 6-2-1 ATS record, covering comfortably as favorites in each of those wins.
Despite some tough losses, the Bengals have been equally strong against the spread, entering the week at 6-4 ATS after covering in four of their last five games.
Both offenses are thriving, powered by stellar performances from their quarterbacks. Joe Burrow (89.8) and Justin Herbert (84.4) rank among the top five in PFF passing grades through 10 weeks. Since November, both teams have climbed into the top eight in EPA per dropback, showcasing their offensive efficiency.
Herbert’s resurgence has been especially noteworthy. After a rocky start to the season that saw him earn just a 58.2 PFF passing grade over the first six weeks (29th among qualifying quarterbacks), he has been on fire. Over his last four games, Herbert has posted three single-game passing grades above 89.0, culminating in a league-leading 94.4 over that span. During this stretch, he has delivered 13 big-time throws—four more than any other passer—without committing a single turnover-worthy play.
Burrow has also shined with elite metrics across the board, ranking above the 95th percentile in several key grading facets, including standard dropbacks, no play-action situations, under-pressure throws and late-down throws, further solidifying his case as one of the NFL’s premier quarterbacks.
PFF model bet: Over 48 total points scored
Considering the firepower on both sides, it’s no surprise that oddsmakers set a 48-point game total for this matchup. However, PFF’s Betting Model suggests that the number might be too conservative, projecting the total to land just above 49 points.
While the Chargers boast the NFL’s second-best EPA per play allowed this season, that ranking might be inflated by a soft recent schedule. Over the last three weeks, they’ve faced quarterbacks Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Will Levis — none of whom have exceeded a 60.0 PFF passing grade this season. Jameis Winston, the lone exception, hasn’t been a consistent threat either.
Additionally, the Chargers’ secondary hasn’t been truly tested deep. They’ve faced the league’s lowest rate of pass attempts thrown 20 or more yards downfield (7.8%). Yet, when teams have attacked deep, this secondary has struggled significantly, allowing completions on 52% of such throws and open targets on nearly 43% — both ranking among the NFL’s bottom three.
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