• RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — over 16.5 Carries: Given how potent the Buffalo offense has been this year, Baltimore will want to control the game on the ground and through the clock. Fewer opportunities for Josh Allen to possess the ball means a higher probability for the Ravens to come away with a win.
• Record: 9-8 (52.9%) — 0.98 units won: Our weekly bets for stand-alone games have a 50%-plus hit rate and we are positive on units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
A Sunday Night Football classic in the making, featuring two of PFF’s highest-ranked teams heading into Week 4: Josh Allen’s Bills and Lamar Jackson’s Ravens.
Buffalo has been on a tear to start the year, putting up impressive metrics on both sides of the ball. Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have this offense clicking at a high level, having generated the second-highest EPA per play figure as the league’s highest-scoring offense (37.3 points per game). The defense is a similar story of impressive performances, having also generated a top-five EPA per play allowed mark.
Allen, the current leader in the clubhouse to win the 2024 MVP award, per oddsmakers, has been incredible against the spread as an underdog. According to BetMGM, Allen has captured an 18-9-2 record against the spread when gifted points.
Despite possessing a talented roster, Baltimore has had some unfortunate outings through three weeks, dropping two straight to open the campaign before winning this past week in Dallas — one that nearly slipped away late. The Ravens can’t help but play close games.
Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for a massive day on the ground in Week 3, to the tune of 239 yards and three scores, with each generating an 80.0-plus PFF rushing grade. Getting back to the ground game has helped this offense to dictate the tempo, and the Ravens will want to go back to the well this week.
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens: Over 16.5 Carries (-103) — 3.3% PFF Greenline Edge
After early indications from Ravens head coach John Harbaugh that Baltimore may not feed Henry a significant workload, the bruising back has seen his touches increase in each of the past two games. Henry has eclipsed this line in two straight weeks as the offense has leaned back into the running game.
While the Bills have been strong defensively, if they did have an Achilles heel, it would be their run fits. Buffalo has surrendered the seventh-highest EPA per play on running plays.
Given how potent the Buffalo offense has been this year, Baltimore will want to take the air out of the ball and control the game on the ground and through the clock. Fewer opportunities for Josh Allen to possess the ball means a higher probability for the Ravens to come away with a win.
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