• It will take a near-flawless showing for the Falcons to emerge victorious: The Chiefs in Week 2 put up what may end up being their least impressive performance of the season and still managed to find themselves with the ball and a shot to win the game in regulation.
• RB Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs — under 1.5 receptions: The story of undrafted rookie back Carson Steele’s path to the NFL is inspiring, but the market will be wildly influenced by narrative and public hype, as opposed to on-field production, making him a prime candidate to fade in the spotlight of Sunday Night Football.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
After a close one-point win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons again find themselves as primetime underdogs, this time against the defending champion and undefeated Chiefs.
Despite not playing a perfect game in Week 2, the Falcons rallied late in a contest that could have easily swung the other way, an outcome that gave them some much-needed confidence. Atlanta’s passing game seemingly found its legs this past week, having produced the sixth-highest expected points added per dropback figure. Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins shook the uneasiness in the pocket to earn a respectable 74.7 PFF passing grade, more than 32 points higher on the grading scale compared to Week 1.
Wide receiver Darnell Mooney stepped up in a big way late against Philadelphia after being an afterthought in this offense through a majority of this team’s first seven quarters of play. With just over a minute left in the third quarter last week, Mooney caught a massive 42-yard score to give Atlanta the lead. It was his first of three crucial grabs that, without question, made the difference.
However, that effort didn’t do much to sway oddsmakers, leaving the Falcons as three-point home dogs against the Chiefs.
Although the Bengals managed to take Kansas City to the brink, it takes a near-flawless showing, and maybe even a bit of luck, to beat Andy Reid’s Chiefs, especially in primetime.
The Chiefs in Week 2 put up what may end up being their least impressive performance of the season and still managed to find themselves with the ball and a shot to win the game in regulation. Patrick Mahomes finished with just a 52.0 PFF passing grade, just his fourth sub-60.0 performance since the start of 2022, after dropping a trio of turnover-worthy plays in the game. Yet, that didn’t seem to phase him, as he led Kansas City on yet another game-winning drive.
Atlanta will need to do everything right and more to hold down a Chiefs team that boasts perhaps the most room for error in the game today. Since the start of their multi-title run in 2022, Kansas City is 11-4 against the spread as road favorites.
RB Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 1.5 receptions (+105) — 15.9% PFF Greenline Edge
The news of Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco suffering a fractured fibula in Week 2 — and the expectation that he will miss six to eight weeks on injured reserve — prompted Kansas City to shop for a back to fill the void in the meantime, leading to a reunion with Kareem Hunt. Although Hunt hasn’t played in this scheme since 2018, he is familiar with Reid’s system and should have only a minor learning curve to get prepped for a pivotal role.
The story of undrafted rookie back Carson Steele’s path to the NFL is inspiring, but the market will be wildly influenced by narrative and public hype, as opposed to on-field production, making him a prime candidate to fade in the spotlight of Sunday Night Football.
While just a pair of receptions isn’t an unreachable threshold by any means, it would be rather shocking for Steele to eclipse this mark, given his passing-game metrics. The first-year back has clocked just 19 snaps this season and only seven routes run, all without recording a single target.
He’s a non-factor on third down, due largely to his struggles in pass protection. That means Steele is hard to get on the field in passing situations. This aligns with his workload at UCLA, where he wasn’t much of a receiver (63.2 PFF receiving grade) or pass-blocker (19.3 PFF pass-blocking grade), having surpassed this line just five times in 12 games.
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