• WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts — over 5.5 receptions + over 62.5 receiving yards: When Joe Flacco was at the helm from Weeks 4-6, Downs looked like one of the NFL’s best receivers, having earned the third-highest {FF receiving grade (89.7) at the position.
• 2024 record through Week 8: 18-20 (47.4%) — -1.8 units won
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
The NFL’s Week 9 Sunday slate concludes with a matchup between two of the league’s best-performing teams against the spread, with the Colts (7-1 ATS) heading into Minnesota to take on the Vikings (5-2 ATS).
Despite inconsistency at the game’s most important position, Indianapolis currently holds the league’s best record against the spread, with their only failed cover coming in Week 2 as road favorites in Green Bay.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen made the call this week to sit second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco, who has played relatively well in his time as the starter. During his run at the helm in Weeks 4 through 6, Flacco helped capture a clean 3-0 record against the spread, including a pair of straight-up wins as the underdog and a pair of covers on the road.
The difference in this team’s offensive efficiency with Flacco under center is striking compared to how this unit operates with Richardson leading the way. When rolling with the veteran, Indianapolis ranked in the top eight in EPA per dropback and scoring drive percentage across Weeks 4-6. Conversely, this offense ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in EPA per play (23rd), successful play rate (24th) and scoring drive percentage (26th) in the weeks that Richardson called the shots.
Making that call was a savvy move by Steichen with the Vikings on the schedule. Minnesota is looking for a get-right game after dropping its past two outings and failing to cover for the first time this year. The Vikings still maintain one of the league’s top records against the spread (5-2).
Defensive issues have sprouted up in recent weeks for Minnesota, namely struggling to cover with much consistency. Miscommunication and breakdowns on the backend have resulted in significant chunks of yardage. The team's coverage unit has surrendered the highest open-target percentage (80.4%) and rate of passes gaining 15-plus yards (27.0%).
WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: Over 5.5 receptions + Over 62.5 receiving yards (+100)
When Joe Flacco was at the helm from Weeks 4-6, Josh Downs looked like one of the NFL’s best receivers, having earned the third-highest PFF receiving grade (89.7) at the position, powered by top-five marks in threat percentage (33.3%), receptions (24) and first-down catches (15).
Downs is undoubtedly a crucial piece to this offense, and Flacco does well to highlight him, with the veteran targeting him nine or more times in each game they've played together this season. Downs sees a variety of matchups and target variety from the slot, which has allowed him to eclipse these lines in each game with Flacco.
The Vikings’ recent coverage issues are personified in the struggles experienced by safety Josh Metellus. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores deploys Metellus in a variety of alignments and looks, a role he performed well in to start the year. But over the past two games, Metellus has earned just a 38.9 PFF coverage grade and allowed the most open targets (10) and receptions of 15-plus yards (four) on the team.
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