• Rest advantage to the Bills: Buffalo is coming off extended rest, having last played on Thursday, Sept. 12, when the team took home a commanding victory over the Dolphins and captured the lead in the AFC East.
• We're looking at a shootout: Given the Bills' powerful offense, there’s a strong probability that Buffalo won't slow down in Week 3. The Jaguars have run into some glaring coverage issues on the back end that will undoubtedly leave them in a tough spot trying to get matched up here.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills (-5.5) [Total: 45.5]
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Game Overview
There is no better way to spend Monday night than with an NFL doubleheader.
The first game on this Monday slate features the Josh Allen-led Buffalo Bills playing host to Trevor Lawrence’s Jacksonville Jaguars.
Buffalo is coming off extended rest, having last played on Thursday, Sept. 12, when the team took home a commanding victory over the Dolphins and captured the lead in the AFC East.
Bills RB James Cook exploded for three scores on just 12 touches en route to an 87.3 PFF offensive grade, the highest mark among qualifying backs in Week 2. And although Josh Allen didn't deliver one of his dominant statistical outings, he was effective when it mattered, posting a 77.2 overall grade and guiding his team to a 2-0 start to the season.
Now, the Bills offense heads into Week 3 as the second-most efficient unit in the league in terms of EPA per play over the last two weeks.
Jacksonville hasn’t been quite as effective to start the year, largely struggling to find its identity on offense. Ideally, this offense would run at a high level through Trevor Lawrence and this passing game, but some difficulties creating separation and untimely injuries have hindered results for this Jags offense.
In an unfortunate turn, Jags tight end Evan Engram pulled his hamstring in pregame warmups before kickoff in Week 2, leaving this offense down a crucial piece to the production puzzle. Engram is again slated to miss this game.
Despite looking strong out of the gate this season, Buffalo holds a 0-1 record against the spread as a favorite at home. At the same time, Jacksonville has covered its only road game to this point. Oddly enough, both of the aforementioned games came against the Dolphins.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills: Over 45.5 total points scored (-105): 1% PFF Greenline Edge
Given the Bills' powerful offense, highlighted by unique talents like Josh Allen and James Cook, there’s a strong probability that Buffalo isn’t about to slow down in Week 3. The Jaguars have run into some glaring coverage issues on the back end that will undoubtedly leave them in a tough spot trying to get matched up here.
Jaguars safeties Andre Cisco (35.9 PFF coverage grade) and Antonio Johnson (46.0) have struggled mightily in coverage this year, earning bottom-five coverage grading marks thus far into the season. That’s a critical weakness against a quarterback like Allen, who has posted an impressive 94.7 PFF passing grade on throws of 10 or more yards downfield.
The Bills, however, are dealing with injuries to key contributors on defense, such as linebacker Terrel Bernard (pec) and cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm), who are slated to miss this one.
In step safety Cam Lewis and linebacker Baylon Spector, who have struggled in coverage, with neither generating a grade over 50.5.
That seems like the makings of a shootout.
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