• RB Breece Hall, New York Jets — under 91.5 rushing/receiving yards: Pittsburgh fits the run at a high level with the elite play of T.J. Watt, who secured a 99.0 PFF run-defense grade this past week.
• 2024 Record: 15-15 (50%) — 0.01 units won
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 38.5]
Game Overview
The Week 7 NFL Sunday slate concludes with a matchup full of storylines that have dominated this week’s news cycle, ranging from the Jets' acquisition of All-Pro receiver Davante Adams to the Steelers' quarterback switch to Russell Wilson.
While those headlines are at the forefront of this matchup, it's in the margins where this game will be decided — and where the profit is to be had.
New York comes into its second straight primetime game after suffering a close loss against Buffalo on Monday Night Football this past week, capping off a tough three-game stretch that has seen the team go 0-3 against the spread.
Problems with consistency and output have plagued the Jets' offense, with the unit ranking below the league average in EPA per play (22nd), yards per play (22nd), successful play percentage (18th) and scoring drive percentage (25th). That undoubtedly prompted the trade to bring in Aaron Rodgers’ former teammate and favorite target, Davante Adams. The pair already carry an invaluable chemistry that will expedite the transition period, allowing Adams to make an immediate impact.
Rodgers peppered Adams with 177 targets in 2021, so Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson may see reduced usage, the latter of which led the NFL in targets (31) over the past two games.
Pittsburgh comes into this game navigating uncertain waters as they tab Russell Wilson to make his first regular-season start under center for the team. With Justin Fields at the helm, the Steelers held a 4-2 record against the spread, covering their first three but having since dropped two of their past three. However, Pittsburgh was also favored in five straight, last being gifted points in Week 1 in Atlanta — a game they won outright by eight points.
Wilson will step into an offense that likes to run play action (31.1%; sixth), something he was sorely missing in his time in Denver. Over his final two seasons in Seattle from 2020 to 2021, Wilson generated a 93.2 play-action passing grade, a mark that ranks in the 86th percentile over that span.
With the Steelers' strength falling on their incredible defense, expect them to forego asking Wilson to do too much and instead lean on their run game paired with play action.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets: Under 91.5 Rushing/Receiving yards (-118) — 1.0% PFF Greenline Edge
As alluded to above, the addition of an All-Pro receiver familiar with his quarterback will result in reduced touches for the rest of the Jets' playmakers. Although Hall is coming off his best outing of the season, racking up 165 total yards against the Bills, the Steelers' defense is an entirely different beast against backs.
Pittsburgh fits the run at a high level with the elite play of T.J. Watt, who secured a 99.0 PFF run-defense grade this past week. Efforts like that have helped the defense allow the NFL’s lowest EPA per play on runs this season.
The Steelers have surrendered that type of yardage to just three backs this season, all of which took 22 or more touches to eclipse — a level of volume Hall has seen only once in 2024. Todd Downing made more of an effort to get Hall his touches this past week after issues in the prior two outings, but there’s only one football to go around, and it will likely be hogged by Rodgers and Adams.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 54.5 Rushing yards (-110) — Variable PFF Greenline Edge
The Steelers' game plan will reflect what the Bills did against the Jets' defense a week ago: running the football right down the pipe.
Harris is coming off his best game of the year, earning a 90.4 PFF grade on the ground after racking up 106 yards and a score, marking his fourth game this season having surpassed this rushing line. Much of that production comes as a credit to Harris’ ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact, having forced 11 missed tackles and gained 127 yards after contact — top-three marks at the position over the past two games.
That will present a problem for a Jets defense that continues to struggle to secure tackles in the run game. In Week 6, New York tallied eight missed tackles against the run, adding to their league-leading 41. As a result, Bills backup running back Ray Davis racked up 69 yards after contact.
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