Sunday Night Football Week 4: Chiefs-Jets betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• Bet Dalvin Cook UNDER 26.5 rushing yards: Cook has been terribly inefficient through three games as a Jet and is also sharing time in the backup role with Michael Carter.

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Well, this certainly is not the matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes we expected when the 2023 NFL schedule was announced. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been a good, solid defense through three weeks, ranking fourth in expected points allowed per play and ninth in success rate allowed, and that includes playing two of what were thought to be the best offenses in the league in the Lions and Jaguars through three weeks.

The Chiefs' offense is not necessarily firing on all cylinders yet, hindered by drops in Week 1 without Travis Kelce and failing to get the ball over the line as often as they could have against the Jaguars in Week 2. Kansas City managed 41 points against the Chicago Bears last week, but the Bears may have the worst defense in the league. This should be a much tougher assignment. The betting markets are terribly difficult to solve in this game, and I do not believe there to be too much value. 

Dalvin Cook Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

This number may seem low, but this is a Breece Hall offense. The snap counts have been trending as such week after week. In the second half last week against the Patriots, with the game on the line, Hall out-snapped Dalvin Cook, 17 to nine. Playing style dictated that to a large extent because the Jets passed almost exclusively in the fourth quarter, but Hall had three carries to Cook’s none in the third quarter.

With the Jets as an 8.5-point underdog, this game possibly becomes a need-to-pass situation again. Cook has seen his snap shares drop from 50% to 36% to 25% last week. Outside of usage, Cook has been terribly inefficient through three games as a Jet, posting just 58 yards on 25 attempts. He is also sharing time in the backup role with Michael Carter, with Cook gaining just one more snap than Carter in each of the past two weeks. The Chiefs' run defense has been excellent with Chris Jones back in the fold, and their pace of play goes against betting overs on a vast majority of props.