• RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Even after David Montgomery‘s return from injury, Jahmyr Gibbs has dominated the red-zone opportunities for the Lions, accounting for nearly twice as many carries and targets.
• RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders: Only the Carolina Panthers have allowed a higher success rate to opposing running backs than the Dallas Cowboys, who have struggled to defend the run this season.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
• Even after David Montgomery‘s return from injury, Jahmyr Gibbs has dominated the red-zone opportunities for the Lions, accounting for nearly twice as many carries and targets. Despite this, markets are pricing Montgomery’s odds far shorter than Gibbs', likely because of the role Montgomery no longer has.
• We would ideally prefer to avoid touchdown bets in backfields with split work, but because the Lions offense has been so dominant and because they are so run-heavy, there is enough volume for all to go around — so much so that Gibbs has received the second-most opportunities of any running back over the last two weeks.
• The matchup with the Packers should only solidify our thesis, as they rank in the bottom 10 in most metrics against running backs. The Lions have a healthy 28-point total and should be frequent visitors to the end zone.
RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
• Only the Carolina Panthers have allowed a higher success rate to opposing running backs than the Dallas Cowboys, who have struggled to defend the run this season.
• Robinson has been Washington's lead back in the red zone this season, handling close to 85% of the touches. With Antonio Gibson still banged up, Robinson’s role should only be further solidified.
• Robinson has not only been a threat to score on the ground, but he has also mustered three touchdowns through the air, good for third-most among all backs.
• In an up-tempo game with a very high total, Washington should often find themselves in the red zone. Look for them to turn to their go-to back as a runner and receiver.
Long shot: RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
• Up until the Niners' bye two weeks ago, it was extremely rare for Christian McCaffrey to leave the field, as he recorded weekly snap counts in the 90% range.
• But since the Week 9 bye, his range has been closer to 75%, leaving some room for Mitchell to take on some of his work. Mitchell has 12 carries over the last few games.
• The clearest path to Mitchell getting into the end zone involves a game script that has the Niners blowing out the Seahawks, allowing Mitchell to bleed the clock. And with Geno Smith seemingly reeling from injury, the Niners healthy and finding their form, there’s a decent likelihood we see the Niners completely dominate this game, certainly more so than a typical 7-point favorite.
• Playing Mitchell +650 allows for some exposure to the Niners game script while taking advantage of the lesser role Mccaffrey has held post-bye.
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