• RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers — under 48.5 rushing yards (-115): Dillon has been one of the least efficient running backs in all of football this season. Despite garnering a larger workload compared to years past, he’s averaging -0.13 rushing yards over expected, 22nd among the 33 running backs with at least 80 carries on the year.
• TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys — longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115): The Commanders defense has allowed 45 catches of 20-plus yards this season, dead last among all defenses. They allow a lot of explosive plays, and with Ferguson being the Cowboys' de facto second receiving option, he should be able to generate an explosive reception in this game.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Dillon has been one of the least efficient running backs in all of football this season. Despite garnering a larger workload compared to years past, he’s averaging -0.13 rushing yards over expected, 22nd among the 33 running backs with at least 80 carries on the year.
• The Lions' run defense has been above average this year, ranking 12th in expected points added (EPA) allowed and 11th in rushing success rate allowed.
• Looking back at the early-season matchup between these two teams, Dillon took five carries for 11 yards. While the volume aspect of things was different, as Aaron Jones was playing, Dillon got nothing going on the ground.
• Additionally, the spread for this game is Lions by 7.5, so there could be a big negative game script, which could lead to fewer carries overall.
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: Longest reception over 15.5 yards (-115)
• The Commanders defense has allowed 45 catches of 20-plus yards this season, dead last among all defenses. They allow a lot of explosive plays, and with Ferguson being the Cowboys' de facto second receiving option, he should be able to generate an explosive reception in this game.
• Ferguson has hit this over in six of his last seven games. The Cowboys have also thrown the ball a lot more recently, as they’ve had a 9.7% pass rate over expected since Week 9. This should only open up more opportunities for Ferguson on Thanksgiving.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
• The 49ers defense has forced 18 turnover-worthy plays from opposing quarterbacks this season and has done so at the ninth-highest rate among all defenses this year. This is a fast and physical team whose pass rush forces QBs to speed up their internal clock, forcing them to make bad decisions.
• Geno Smith has had 14 turnover-worthy plays and the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate among all quarterbacks in 2023. Last year, he also threw an interception in two of the Seahawks' three games against the 49ers.
• Geno has not faced the toughest slate of opponents this year, but he’s thrown interceptions against good defenses like the Browns and Ravens.
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