• WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks — over 61.5 receiving yards (-110): Despite some struggles this past week, Metcalf has put together a fantastic start to the season. The sixth-year receiver has seen 42 targets this season – a top-10 mark at the position – giving him the opportunity to produce at a high-level.
• QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers — over 250.5 passing yards (-115): The young passer currently lays claim to the third-highest PFF passing grade (84.0) in the league and has managed to surpass this line in three of his last four games.
• 2024 Record: 11-13 (45.8%) — -2.14 units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks [Total: 49]
Game Overview
Week 6 kicks off with a highly anticipated matchup between NFC West division rivals. Seattle holds the top spot in the division and plays host to reigning the NFC champion 49ers.
While both of these franchises carry strong rosters, that hasn’t equated to terribly solid outcomes in the betting market, with both teams combining to cover just three times in 10 matchups. San Francisco has found itself laying points each week to start the season and has particularly struggled as road favorites, currently standing at 0-2 against the spread. On the other sideline, the Seahawks are staring down an 0-2 record against the spread over their past two games.
Both teams are coming off straight-up home losses as seven-point favorites, with Seattle losing to the Giants by nine points and San Francisco dropping to a late Arizona field goal.
The 49ers' issues in the red zone have become a topic of conversation again this week after another poor showing. Against the Cardinals last week, the team managed six trips to the red zone but came away with only one touchdown. The 49ers possess the league’s fifth-lowest red-zone touchdown percentage (40.9%), despite having the highest average red-zone snaps per game (14.2) in the NFL.
That may be a problem against this Seahawks defense, which seems to tighten up when backed up inside of its own 20 yard-line. Despite having allowed the second-most red-zone drives (20), Seattle has let up just a 45% red-zone touchdown rate — a top-10 mark among defenses. And most of that damage came in a single game, on the road against Detroit.
However, Seattle has seen more favorable matchups that prop up this number a bit. While the 49ers have struggled in some regard, they’re undoubtedly one of the most talent-rich offenses the Seahawks will face this season.
WR D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks: Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110) — Variable PFF Greenline Edge
Despite some struggles this past week, Metcalf has put together a fantastic start to the season. The sixth-year receiver has seen 42 targets — a top-10 mark at the position — allowing him to produce at a high level. Metcalf has managed 100-plus receiving yards in three of his past four outings, leading him to a top-25 rank in yards per route run among receivers.
Tasked with guarding Metcalf will be 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward, who has some major ground to make up after a tough start to the year. Ward over the past three games sports just a 43.2 PFF coverage grade, ranking 92nd out of 99 qualifying cornerbacks.
In previous matchups between these two, Ward has generally gotten the better of Metcalf, but this is shaping up to be the Seahawks receiver’s chance to buck that trend. On top of his on-field struggles, Ward is also dealing with a knee injury that has left him limited in practice this week. Given how Ward has won this matchup through his physicality, being hindered by that injury may make that a much more difficult task to repeat.
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: Over 250.5 passing yards (-115) — 0.8% PFF Greenline Edge
Although the 49ers have questions to answer about their offensive efficiency, Purdy has been playing quality ball through the first five games. The young passer currently lays claim to the third-highest PFF passing grade (84.0) in the league and has managed to surpass this line in three of his past four games.
Part of that is due to the 49ers playing well in pass protection, particularly over the past two games. Over Weeks 4 and 5, San Francisco’s pass protection has generated the eighth-best team pass-blocking grade (76.3), having surrendered zero sacks and recorded a top-10 pass-blocking efficiency rating (85.4).
That could prove to be a problem for Seattle, whose pass-rushing production has dipped recently. Over the first three games, the Seahawks amassed the most pressures (70) in the NFL. But they have generated the fifth fewest over the past two weeks.
Without pressure, Purdy will be left to dissect a secondary that may be without cornerback Riq Woolen (ankle), leaving cornerback Tre Brown (41.8 PFF coverage grade over the past three games) in a tough spot.
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