• Best bet: QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — 50+ rushing yards (+108 FanDuel, +102 Caesars)
• Expecxt scrambles: Given the weakness of the Bears' secondary and the strength of the Commanders' run defense and defensive line in general, the need to drop back will exist throughout the game, creating opportunities for pressure and the subsequent scrambles.
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GAME OVERVIEW
The Washington Commanders have been somewhat of a surprise package to start the season and find themselves 2-2 entering Thursday Night Football. They enter the game fresh off a Week 4 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a game in which second-year quarterback Sam Howell put up a season-high 74.0 PFF grade and threw for just shy of 300 yards.
They come back home to face a Chicago Bears team that is down to the bare bones in the secondary but put on its best offensive performance of the season against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. Bears quarterback Justin Fields managed 335 passing yards and four touchdowns in the loss — a game they led 28-14 in the third quarter — but Denver is home to one of the worst pass rushes in the league, and Fields had the luxury of time, which he is so rarely afforded behind this offensive line.
Unfortunately for Fields, this Commanders defensive line is significantly better, ranking as one of the league’s best when adjusting for the strength of the opponent's offensive line.
| Chicago Bears | Washington Commanders | |
| Power Rank: Overall | 31st | 22nd |
| Power Rank: Defense | 30th | 10th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 24th | 20th |
| SOS Played | 5th | 11th |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 64.5 | 69.8 |
| % Run Plays | 35.6% | 29.8% |
| % Pass Plays | 64.4% | 70.2% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| EPA Per Pass | -0.17 | -0.07 |
QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 50+ Rushing Yards (+108 FanDuel, +102 Caesars)
Fields put up historically good numbers as a runner last season, partly because he played some of the league’s best pass-rushing units.
Of the 15 games he played in 2022, 12 were against a top-11 team in pass-rush win rate. This season, he has played teams ranked second, 21st, 22nd and 31st.
The Commanders are currently 17th but have faced both the Bills and Eagles, teams in the top eight in pass protection this season. They were without star pass-rusher Chase Young in Week 1, too, so their current ranking is much lower than their true ability.
The Packers — the second-ranked team in pass-rush win rate — managed to pressure Fields on 53% of dropbacks, and he turned that pressure into seven scrambles for 60 yards.
Given the weakness of the Bears' secondary and the strength of the Commanders' run defense and defensive line in general, the need to drop back will exist throughout the game, creating opportunities for pressure and the subsequent scrambles.
Washington has given up 56 rushing yards to Russell Wilson (9.3 yards per attempt), 46 to Josh Allen (15.3) and 28 scrambling yards to Jalen Hurts (9.3) this year.
Bet the Fields 50-plus rushing yards on Thursday night.
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