• RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos — over 45.5 rushing yards: Over the past four weeks, the Saints' defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush and dead last in team run-defense grade (40.5).
• TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints — over 26.5 receiving yards: Klint Kubiak will want to scheme quick reads and boots into his game plan to get the ball out of his young passer’s hand and neutralize Denver's pass rush. That will open up Johnson to numerous opportunities.
• 2024 Record: 14-14 (50%) — 0.13 units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Denver Broncos (-2) vs. New Orleans Saints [Total: 37]
Game Overview
After 16 seasons at the helm of the New Orleans Saints, Sean Payton returns to the city he brought a Super Bowl to, this time wearing new colors. Emotions will be running high in the Superdome for this one, as both teams are coming off tough home losses in Week 6.
New Orleans has suffered four straight defeats amid a rash of injuries after starting the year with a pair of big wins. The Saints came away from September with a 3-1 against-the-spread record but have since dropped both games in October, including a loss this past week as 3.5-point home underdogs.
Injuries to pivotal players have put the Saints behind the eight-ball offensively on a short week. The absence of quarterback Derek Carr extends into another week, with first-year passer Spencer Rattler slated to start under-center again. This time, he'll be without top targets Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee surgery). That comes in addition to a slew of injuries along the offensive line, including guard/center Lucas Patrick (chest; questionable) and Cesar Ruiz (knee; out) both missing this past week and still dealing with issues coming into this contest.
Protection issues have plagued New Orleans as of late, with the offense ranking dead last in team pass-blocking grade (34.7) over the past four games. They’ve surrendered the fifth-most pressures (78) over that span, and while much of that is attributed to the offensive line, Rattler shares some responsibility for the team's 37.5% pressure rate allowed this past week. The rookie passer was charged with 23% of the team’s pressures in his debut.
That may prove to be a glaring issue in this matchup. The Broncos' defense has been playing at a high level in recent weeks and, despite some struggles in Week 6, holds the NFL’s highest defensive grade (85.7) from Week 3 onward.
Denver has found success on passing downs, maintaining strong coverage play and an opportunistic pass rush. Over the past four games, this defense has generated the most pressures (93) in the NFL to go with the league’s best team coverage grade (90.1). However, this week they will have to contend without star cornerback Pat Surtain II (concussion).
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-113) — variable PFF Greenline Edge
A lot has been made this season of the Broncos' ineffectiveness on the ground, with the team ranking in the bottom third of the league in EPA per rush and Bo Nix currently holding the team’s top-rushing grade (76.6).
As the lead back, Williams started the year uninspired but has since found some limited momentum, having surpassed this line in two of his past three outings. Despite a poor showing last week, Williams has generated five explosive runs and 11 forced missed tackles since Week 4, both of which rank in the top eight at the position.
Without a doubt, the Broncos' offense needs a consistent presence on the ground. This matchup can go a long way toward establishing that. One of the Saints' glaring issues over their four-game skid has been their trouble fitting the run. Over that span, their defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush and dead last in team run-defense grade (40.5). That has allowed four backs to surpass this line in the past three games.
TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints: Over 26.5 receiving yards (-114) — variable PFF Greenline Edge
As we’ve already established, this isn’t a positive matchup for New Orleans' passing game. The Saints are dealing with a banged-up offensive line and receiving corps while trotting out a rookie quarterback. That's tough to manage on a good day, but against an attacking unit like the Broncos' defense? It could prove to be a long game.
Klint Kubiak will want to scheme quick reads and boots into his game plan to get the ball out of his young passer’s hand and neutralize Denver's pass rush. That will open up Johnson to numerous opportunities, similar to how he has been used in recent weeks without Carr on the field. This past week, Johnson hauled in three catches for 48 yards, and he had a 30-yard reception nullified due to a penalty.
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