• QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — over 22.5 completions: The former No. 1 overall pick was dealing this past week at home against the Eagles on his way to producing his best outing of the season so far. Mayfield generated an 85.1 PFF passing grade, the third-best mark of Week 4 and second-best in his time with the Buccaneers.
• 2024 Record: 11-10 (52.4%) — 0.86 units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) [Total: 44]
Game Overview
A battle atop the NFC South kicks off Week 5’s Thursday night action, with the division-leading Buccaneers heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.
The Kirk Cousins Era in Atlanta hasn’t been without its bumps to start the year, but a big last-second divisional win over the Saints this past week has brought life to this team. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo — the second-highest-graded kicker in the NFL — has become the equalizer for this team, with his outstanding accuracy keeping these games closer than they otherwise might be.
Even still, that hasn’t amounted to a huge asset for bettors. The Falcons possess just a 1-3 record against the spread this season, with all three losses coming in Atlanta — two of which they were modest favorites in.
Despite having talented weapons, particularly running back Bijan Robinson, Atlanta hasn’t been efficient offensively, ranking in the bottom five of the league in a variety of metrics, including late-down conversion rate (31.9%), touchdown drive percentage (13.2%) and offensive points scored (30).
In part, those issues fall to the quarterback position, where Kirk Cousins has generated just a 64.7 PFF passing grade (19th among 33 qualifying passers). He has produced just a pair of big-time throws compared to seven turnover-worthy plays — tied for second most in the NFL. This offense will need him to make strides this week against Tampa, as the Bucs hold the NFL’s second-highest team coverage grade (81.4) through the first month of the season.
Conversely, Tampa Bay has shown the ability to put together solid outings on both sides of the ball, evidenced by the team's bounce-back win this past week, taking down the Eagles by multiple scores as a home underdog.
Just like their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers relish the underdog status, currently holding a 2-0 record against the spread when gifted points, including an outright win on the road in Detroit in Week 2.
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 22.5 Completions (-109) — 4.8% PFF Greenline Edge
The former No. 1 overall pick was dealing this past week at home against the Eagles on his way to producing his best outing of the season so far. Mayfield generated an 85.1 PFF passing grade, the third-highest mark of Week 4 and second-best in his time with the Buccaneers.
Consistency has been a bit of an issue for Mayfield to start the year, marred by situations where he holds onto the ball for too long. That was far from the case this past week, as he played from the pocket with time and rhythm to get the ball out quickly. Mayfield posted the league’s quickest time-to-throw average (2.17 seconds) last week after ranking among the top 14 longest times through Week 3.
Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen is putting Mayfield into measured, high-percentage looks early to soften up coverages, then uncorking shot plays to attack mistakes. That has allowed Mayfield to eclipse this betting line in three of four games this season.
Atlanta likes to lean on its savvy veteran safeties to keep offenses guessing, often starting with open looks pre-snap and rotating to close the middle of the field. Their 40.8% disguised coverage rate ranks third in the NFL. If Coen and Mayfield can anticipate this and keep the ball coming out quickly, it could go a long way in this game.
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