Thursday Night Football: Giants-49ers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• Darren Waller under 45.5 receiving yards: Darren Waller remains the feature of this passing offense, maybe even more so with Saquon Barkley on the sidelines for this match. However, the 49ers defense has been exceptional against tight ends in coverage because of the ability of their linebackers and safeties.

• Daniel Jones’ protection falling apart: The Giants' protection did not hold up against the Cowboys in Week 1, as Jones was pressured on 28 of his 42 snaps when star left tackle Andrew Thomas was playing. But with Thomas and starting left guard Ben Bredeson on the sidelines against a pass rush that has been better than the Cowboys' so far, this passing game is likely to suffer on TNF.

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LINE MOVEMENT & GAME OVERVIEW

Halfway through the Week 2 clash with the Arizona Cardinals, it would have been easy to suggest that the New York Giants were the worst team in football. After all, they hadn't scored in six quarters to start the season and were averaging just 3.43 yards per play. 

But then the Cardinals fell apart. After allowing only 3.1 yards and-0.399 expected points added (EPA) per play in the first half — marks that would have paced the league in Week 2 — Arizona's coverage was sloppy in the second. They gave up 12.3 yards per pass play, allowing Darren Waller, in particular, to find huge holes in the zone defense.

The Giants completed six 15-plus-yard passing plays in the second half, and only one of them was to a receiver with a defender within two yards. 

This week, the Giants come to Levi’s Stadium as a 10.5-point underdog to the 49ers and have several key offensive linemen who are struggling with injuries — not good news, given that they'll be squaring up against a pass rush that is winning at an extremely high rate.

There are 44 defensive linemen across the entire league who have rushed the passer at least 25 times and produced a win rate of at least 14% through two weeks. Seven of them play for this 49ers defensive front.

The team win rate is 83%, 16.3 points higher than the Cowboys in second place. Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league through two weeks. 

BEST BET

TE Darren Waller, New York Giants: Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-103 Caesars, or Under 48.5 -113 FanDuel)

Darren Waller remains the feature of this passing offense, maybe even more so with Saquon Barkley on the sidelines for this match. However, the 49ers defense has been exceptional against tight ends in coverage because of the ability of their linebackers and safeties.

EPA per play allowed in coverage to tight ends since 2021

No team in football has played more coverage than the 49ers through two weeks, and despite playing two highly targeted tight ends in Pat Freiermuth and Tyler Higbee, they have given up just six catches for 34 yards to the position.

Darren Waller posted a blank in the first quarter last week, with his yardage racking up in the second half when the Cardinals collapsed defensively, and he caught three balls for 36 yards against the Cowboys the week before.

Daniel Jones’ protection did not hold up against the Cowboys in Week 1, as he was pressured on 28 of his 42 snaps when star left tackle Andrew Thomas was playing. But with Thomas and starting left guard Ben Bredeson on the sidelines against a pass rush that has been better than the Cowboys' so far, this passing game is likely to suffer.