• Minnesota to cover (-3): The Vikings hold one of the NFL’s best records against the spread (5-1), having covered their first five to start the year before dropping their matchup this past week against Detroit. Conversely, the Rams hold one of the worst records against the spread in the NFL (1-5) and have failed to cover since Week 3.
• 2024 Record: 17-17 (50%) — -0.02 units won.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs Los Angeles Rams [Total: 48]
Game Overview
Week 8 starts with a trade market special featuring a pair of teams that have found themselves at the center of swirling trade rumors leading up to the NFL’s trade deadline on Nov. 5.
Never afraid to shy away from a high-profile trade, Rams general manager Les Snead may again be active in the market as a seller amid their 2-4 start. Rumors that Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford may be on the block have prevailed through this week’s news cycle and will be at the center of this matchup.
Despite rumors of the Vikings being a team interested in Stafford — which have largely been shot down, per Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune — there may be some truth to this team adding a body on defense to help supplement one of the NFL’s strongest units, with names like the Giants' Dexter Lawrence and the Panthers' Jaycee Horn being thrown around as potential targets.
The Vikings' defense, which ranks third in expected points allowed per play in 2024, is one of the most aggressive units in the NFL behind a comprehensive pressure package that allows this team to dictate to opposing offenses. Brian Flores is scheming up the highest blitz rate in the league (51.1%), a mark nearly 7 percentage points higher than any other team. Throwing the kitchen sink at opposing passers has netted good results, as this defense has allowed just one quarterback to surpass a 73.0 passer rating against the blitz, the Lions' Jared Goff this past week.
Unlike Goff, who plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Stafford is dealing with spotty protection, at best. The Rams hold the 24th-ranked EPA per play offense, due largely to their struggling pass protection, which holds a 31st-ranked team PFF pass-blocking grade (40.2).
Those marks get even more troubling when facing five or more pass-rushers, dropping to a 35.5 team PFF pass-blocking grade, behind a league-worst 22.6% knockdown percentage.
Vikings (-3) vs. Rams: Minnesota covers — 1.1% PFF Greenline Edge
The differences between these two teams' performances in the market throughout the first half of the year are staggering. The Vikings hold one of the NFL’s best records against the spread, 5-1, having covered their first five to start the year before dropping their matchup this past week against Detroit. While it’s disappointing to lose a game at home as close favorites, just missing out against a strong divisional opponent like the Lions isn't world-shattering.
Conversely, the Rams hold one of the worst records against the spread in the NFL, 1-5, having failed to cover since Week 3. Although that Week 3 cover and straight-up win also came as home underdogs, the 49ers were dealing with several injuries and still managed to lead the game for all but two minutes of game time.
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